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Brazil’s natural gas industry and that of its neighbors in the Southern Cone, such as Argentina and Chile, have labelled gas the ‘fuel of the future’. Has that future finally arrived?
Recent events have created a perfect storm in the oil markets, the likes of which have never been seen before. Do these clouds carry any silver lining? Listen to the latest episode of the Asia Pacific Energy podcast.
Oil demand has gone into a tailspin. We now expect Q1 global oil consumption to be 2.7 million b/d lower than the same period a year ago.
As the battle against the coronavirus outbreak intensifies across the globe, positive news is in short supply. But in a world turned upside down, rising levels of air pollution in China indicate that a recovery is now underway.
Already oversupplied, the global LNG market has come out of a mild winter straight into the headlock of a global pandemic that is impacting demand across the world’s major gas markets as rapidly as it is damaging their economies.
The coronavirus global pandemic and subsequent collapse in oil price has had a profound impact on global gas markets, changing supply and demand fundamentals. The timing of the global gas market recovery is the biggest uncertainty.
But the appetite of China’s consumers for Aussie tenderloin and Merlot is insignificant in terms of overall trade. Iron ore, coal and LNG are what really matter.
The plunge in European gas prices has led buyers to cancel cargoes from the US, and export plants are running well below full capacity
Make no mistake, China is the world’s most important gas market. Why? Because today, as demand stalls in so many parts of the world, China is the engine of global gas growth.
Global gas demand has proved resilient despite widespread coronavirus lockdowns - but supply dynamics are more challenging. Will gas and LNG demand continue to recover? And what forces will shape the market over the next two decades?
Bold assumptions, but not unrealistic. But what would happen with a second wave of prolonged, nationwide lockdowns? What would this mean for economic activity? How will oil and gas supply and prices be affected? Will Asia’s demand-led recovery be blown off course?
The regasification sector is in a strong position despite the short-term hit from Covid-19. Investment in further capacity is increasing, driven by the likelihood of robust long-term LNG demand growth.
With declining production from the joint venture’s fields, the NWS may be forced to reduce exports unless new gas is secured.
Current low gas prices are supporting demand growth in the sector and encouraging pro-gas policies and infrastructure developments
Halting the pandemic and rebuilding economies are the most urgent goals for the immediate future. Wood Mackenzie estimates that almost US$20 trillion – equivalent to a quarter of global GDP – will go towards stimulus packages, public health spending and delivering a vaccine over the next 12-18 months alone.
Despite being both the world’s largest energy market and largest carbon emitter, China’s position has long been that responsibility to reduce global emissions rests with rich countries: you broke it, you fix it.
The 2020 elections bring US energy policy to a fork in the road. Trump offers continuity, with some further easing of regulations on the oil, gas and coal industries. Biden offers a return to the Obama administration’s strategy of using regulation to cut emissions, and more ambitious moves if the Democrats win control of Congress.
So, when freezing conditions hit the southern US last week, resulting in feedgas into LNG plants collapsing from above 10 bcfd to just below 2 bcfd, and with some Texas price markers soaring north of US$400/mmbtu, anxiety levels should have been rising.
The year ahead will shape the role of gas in the energy transition. Read our predictions for the top five global trends for gas and LNG, and how they could play out in Europe, North America and Southeast Asia.
None of us could have foreseen what happened this winter. Cost of supply became an irrelevance as Asian spot LNG prices went into orbit. From lows of around US$2/mmbtu in April, the JKM price soared north of US$32/mmbtu last week, with media reports of Trafigura purchasing a cargo from Total at US$39.3/mmbtu.
While it may well claim the crown of world’s largest LNG exporter in 2021, Australia faces rising problems with its gas.
When President Xi Jinping spoke of the risks of ‘tech wars’ at the World Economic Forum’s virtual Davos Agenda event on Monday, there was little doubt who he was aiming at. At a White House briefing later that day, press secretary Jen Psaki stated that “Technology is of course at the centre of US-China competition.”
Japan’s trading houses are re-thinking their long-term strategies around upstream investment.
Less than six years after the National League for Democracy won a landslide election victory after more than half a century of military rule, the country’s generals are once again in control. Already hundreds of civilians have been killed protesting the February 1 coup, leading to international condemnation and the imposition of economic sanctions by many western governments.
With China buying around a third of everything Australia exports on a value basis, the downward spiral in Sino-Australian diplomatic relations is clearly of concern.
Unprecedented market dynamics in Europe are turbo-charging an LNG price recovery, with TTF currently trading close to US$9/mmbtu. What does this mean for global prices?
Using our Lens platform, we've analysed the potential joint venture between Eni and bp in Angola
With Japan’s LNG demand in long-term structural decline, China will this year become the world’s largest LNG market.
As COP26 approaches, pressure on India to commit to net zero is increasing. Global action on climate change is firmly at the top of the political agenda.
China's National Bureau of Statistics could never be accused of hyperbole. With its recent data release showing China achieved record Q1 economic growth of just over 18% year-on-year, the bureau announced that "the national economy made a good start" to 2021.
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