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Santos announced today its plans to acquire ConocoPhillips’s northern Australian portfolio. This is a logical and attractive transaction for a number of reasons.
Speaking after this morning’s PSC round, Juliana Miguez, from Wood Mackenzie’s Latin America upstream team, said: “Petrobras has returned to the headlines. One day after it dominated the Transfer of Rights Surplus round, the NOC placed the only bid of today’s auction."
The energy transition is undoubtedly impacting corporate upstream strategies in significant and disruptive ways. Coupled with the post-2014 downturn in oil prices, Wood Mackenzie sees seismic changes in the way the industry allocates capital across development, exploration and in particular M&A.
Wood Mackenzie’s latest report reveals that LNG sellers with contracts linked to JCC (Japan Crude Cocktail) could lose some US$15 billion in unearned revenues. This is a result of the IMO 2020 regulation limiting sulphur content of marine fuels to up to 0.5%, which directly affects the price of sour crudes such as those composing the JCC mix. The IMO 2020 kicks in on 1st January 2020.
OPEC+ gathers today and tomorrow to decide if the group should roll over its production restraint agreement or consider deeper cuts. The current agreement to reduce output by 1.2 million b/d runs to end March 2020. Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, said: “The idea of deeper cuts has been broached, but we consider that less likely to reach full agreement than a rollover of the standing agreement. The need for production restraint is clear. Slower US production growth is not enough to offset the ongoing imbalance between global supply and demand.”
After a marathon meeting, running late into the night of 5 December, the OPEC+ group has agreed to continue its current production restraint of 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d), and will add a further 0.5 million b/d of supply cuts through to March 2020.
It will be a noteworthy year for the North Sea – companies will increase production for the first time since 2017 and the outlook for both exploration and investment is looking healthy. The region will remain a global hotspot for deals as the corporate landscape continues to evolve. Crucially, the North Sea will also see major steps towards decarbonisation.
The OPEC+ meeting broke up without a deal, what does it mean for the markets?
As global markets reel in the wake of the oil price crash, Wood Mackenzie’ corporate analysis team believes the price collapse could be the trigger for a new phase of deep industry restructuring - one that rivals the changes seen in the late-1990s.
Today’s region-wide Gulf of Mexico Lease Sale 254 saw 84 bids received from 22 participating companies, with high bids totalling US$93 million. That amounts to roughly half of the previous lease sale, held in August 2019.
Survival mode has returned to the oil and gas sector as the oil price rout deepens. Corporate financials are in better shape than during the 2014/2015 crash, but room for manoeuvre is limited. Can companies cope with prices this low?
The North Sea has weathered several storms in its 50-year existence. But the events of the past few weeks mean the sector is entering uncharted waters. The coronavirus pandemic and collapse in OPEC+ production restraint has seen Brent reach its lowest point since 2003.
Wood Mackenzie’s latest analysis reveals that Australia’s next wave of LNG projects are likely to be delayed.
The coronavirus pandemic is reducing oil demand. The OPEC+ production restraint agreement fell apart on 6 March and Saudi Arabia is rapidly increasing supply. The result: Brent crude has plunged to less than US$30/bbl. This will have a significant impact on currently producing fields and future supply. How low can the price go before different sources of production become uneconomic? Where are production shut-ins most likely? Can governments influence the result?
Faced with the double whammy of the oil price crash and the coronavirus pandemic, Africa’s upstream sector looks set to slash capital spending by around 33% in 2020. Similar cuts to operating costs are also targeted by producers to stay cash-flow neutral. Unlike the 2015-16 price crash, this time nothing is sacrosanct: some operators will even wield the axe on committed spend, as well as the discretionary expenditure.
Since OPEC+’s failure to agree on production restraint on 5-6 March, the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic have become far clearer, sparking a crisis in the oil market as prices fell and supply ramped up. The problem for these producers is the scale of the fall in oil demand, especially during April and forecast for Q2 2020. No matter the size of the varying forecasts, they all point to a challenging market that puts pressure on storage space and prices.
The US and European majors showed how cash distributions are a crucial part of their appeal to investors in the energy transition
On 22 June 2018, oil producers' group OPEC delivered a compromise which avoided a decision to fully lift production restraint by instead agreeing to lower its adherence to the current accord from the current 152% to 100%, a clever way to increase output without officially agreeing on an end to output curbs. This should bring a total of 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) back into the market during H2 2018.
As US E&Ps are battered by plunging oil prices, the Trump administration is considering offering them financial support. This and more in this week's Energy Pulse with Ed Crooks.
Analysis of global oil cost curves indicates that many conventional pre-FID projects – even deepwater developments - are now competitive on a breakeven basis with US Lower 48 tight oil. However, this competitiveness has come at the expense of volumes. The trade-off of cost efficiency versus volumes means that in the medium- to long-term, the cost of supply is set to increase, highlighting the US Lower 48’s role as an important marginal barrel producer.
The numbers of new reported Covid-19 cases have been surging in Europe and the US, forcing lockdowns and putting a brake on the economy. In other news, China plans to end sales of conventional internal combustion engine cars by 2035, counting the cost of plugging old wells, and world oil and gas demand will peak around 2030, Equinor says.
From increasing M&A activity to supply wildcards, here’s the latest trends in upstream oil & gas
Carbon dioxide utilisation could bolster carbon capture economics, but there are major obstacles
As CO2 to dedicated sequestration (CCS-Storage) rises in popularity, captured CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (CCS-EOR) falls out of favour. What does the future look like in the world of carbon capture technologies?
Global gas-fired power faces both opportunities and challenges through 2040, as manufacturing constraints, rising costs and regional dynamics shape the sector's outlook.
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Explore the latest news and insight in the market trends affecting oilfield services and original equipment manufacturers at Wood Mackenzie.
Allows you to calculate CO2 emissions along the crude value chain to give an aggregated view across the lifecycle for a specified cargo.
Identify and examine the most important factors affecting heavy oil production and storage to 2035.
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