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Survival mode has returned to the oil and gas sector as the oil price rout deepens. Corporate financials are in better shape than during the 2014/2015 crash, but room for manoeuvre is limited. Can companies cope with prices this low?
The upstream oil and gas sector faces unprecedented uncertainty. It is clear oil companies must act quickly. Cuts to discretionary investment will be immediate and deep. While there are parallels to 2015-16, many things have moved on since the last downturn.
The North Sea has weathered several storms in its 50-year existence. But the events of the past few weeks mean the sector is entering uncharted waters. The coronavirus pandemic and collapse in OPEC+ production restraint has seen Brent reach its lowest point since 2003.
The global oil market has been hit hard with collapsing demand while OPEC+ abandoned its production restraint and supply began rising. Topics will include: • The outlook for global oil demand in 2020 – how low can it go? • China demand is stabilizing – Will US and Europe follow that path? • The impact of low oil prices on US Lower 48 • OPEC and non-OPEC supply: What is up and what is down • Implications for 2020-2021 oil prices
The Majors have reacted swiftly to the oil price collapse. What are the levers they can pull if oil prices remain low? • Have they cut enough? • Have the cuts been to the bone? • Can M&A save the day? • Are dividends at risk?
Faced with the double whammy of the oil price crash and the coronavirus pandemic, Africa’s upstream sector looks set to slash capital spending by around 33% in 2020. Similar cuts to operating costs are also targeted by producers to stay cash-flow neutral. Unlike the 2015-16 price crash, this time nothing is sacrosanct: some operators will even wield the axe on committed spend, as well as the discretionary expenditure.
The coronavirus pandemic is reducing oil demand. The OPEC+ production restraint agreement fell apart on 6 March and Saudi Arabia is rapidly increasing supply. The result: Brent crude has plunged to less than US$30/bbl. This will have a significant impact on currently producing fields and future supply. How low can the price go before different sources of production become uneconomic? Where are production shut-ins most likely? Can governments influence the result?
Since OPEC+’s failure to agree on production restraint on 5-6 March, the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic have become far clearer, sparking a crisis in the oil market as prices fell and supply ramped up. The problem for these producers is the scale of the fall in oil demand, especially during April and forecast for Q2 2020. No matter the size of the varying forecasts, they all point to a challenging market that puts pressure on storage space and prices.
Commenting after Shell announced its intention to become net-zero company by 2050, Luke Parker, vice president, corporate analysis, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “This is an evolution of the net carbon footprint ambition that Shell unveiled in November 2017.
The topic of environmental protection continues to feature heavily in the Two Sessions today. Wood Mackenzie experts share some initial thoughts.
OPEC+ today (6 June 2020) agreed a one-month extension of the 9.7 million barrels per day (b/d) production cut. The extension will tighten the market further and could see Brent prices rise from the current $40/bbl toward $45-to-$50/bbl.
Speaking after BP announced it was writing down as much as $17.5 billion when it reports its second quarter results, Luke Parker, vice president, corporate analysis, said: “The impairment shouldn’t come as a big surprise, but the implications – near-term and long-term – are significant.”
Join our webinar on the 25th February as we discuss the outlook for APAC Upstream oil and gas
Join our webinar on the 13th February as we discuss the outlook for America Upstream oil and gas
Watch the Horizons Live replay as industry experts analyse how the upstream sector can meet rising oil and gas demand amid a delayed energy transition. Discover insights on investment needs, supply challenges, and the impact on global energy markets.
Can gas be the key to a lower-carbon future? Our expert panel explores its role in the energy transition and what’s needed to unlock its full potential.
Join Wood Mackenzie on Wednesday 30 April, for our Summer Outlook where our experts will discuss the primary risks facing the North America natural gas market this summer and host a Q&A to address your most relevant questions.
Newly elected Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, has made energy a key initiative of the new government, with goals to expand both conventional and clean energy, but decoupling energy flows away from the US may prove to be a challenge, according to Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie is excited to be attending and speaking at NOG this year as a strategic partner
Join Wood Mackenzie’s Bulks team on Thursday 24 July, as our experts explore critical insights in bulks commodities.
Is US energy dominance built to last? Discover the key challenges and market forces shaping America's energy future.
Our Horizons Live panel will explore how the Trump administration's 'Liberation Day' tariffs marked a pivotal moment in global trade, potentially reversing the effects of China's 2001 WTO entry and accelerating deglobalization trends.
Germany is on the front line of the energy security crisis and has a radical plan to break its dependence on Russian gas, oil and coal. What can other countries learn from Germany's pivot?
Dr. Liz Dennett is joined by Amy Myers-Jaffe, Prakash Sharma and Massimo Di-Odoardo for our latest Horizons podcast: Security Alert. Listen now for a deep dive into the crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“It’s not easy, but it’s feasible” was the verdict of EU climate chief Frans Timmermans as the bloc announced its ambitious goal of reducing imports of Russian gas by around two thirds this year. With this implying something in the order of 100 bcm of supply, we do not share Mr Timmermans’ optimism.
In 2021 our global analysts created an outstanding body of research, putting a unique angle on everything from Covid-19 and COP26 through the recovery of commodity markets and rising geopolitical risk.
The US administration has suggested possible restrictions on imports of Russian oil. “Self-sanctioning” is already starting to have an impact
The gang are taking a break this week. Instead of a new episode we’re rebroadcasting our special edition live episode where the team discusses the top 5 energy-related stories of 2021.
China is also committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2060. Could Russia’s ambition to rotate the direction of its energy exports through 180 degrees flounder on China’s decarbonisation?
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