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According to a new report by Wood Mackenzie, Southeast Asia could take centre stage in the region's upstream M&A activity in 2019, with up to US$14 billion worth of assets potentially switching hands.
In the latest APAC Energy Buzz, Wood Mackenzie's Asia Pacific Vice Chair, Gavin Thompson, shares the implications of the ongoing US-China trade disputes on the energy sector.
Wood Mackenzie believes that discovering new value requires going beyond isolated datasets. The solution lies in data consortiums – cooperative platforms where companies can safely share quality data.
Please join our premier US Lower 48 research team's webinar to hear our take on this long-standing industry debate on Regional vs. Northern Sands. Our latest analysis will put the Permian proppant debate to a standing still.
OPEC+ gathers today and tomorrow to decide if the group should roll over its production restraint agreement or consider deeper cuts. The current agreement to reduce output by 1.2 million b/d runs to end March 2020. Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, said: “The idea of deeper cuts has been broached, but we consider that less likely to reach full agreement than a rollover of the standing agreement. The need for production restraint is clear. Slower US production growth is not enough to offset the ongoing imbalance between global supply and demand.”
The near-term impact of the coronavirus outbreak on oil demand remains uncertain as much depends upon when and how China’s manufacturing industry restarts after the currently extended Lunar New Year public holiday.
Speaking after French major Total announced it planned to buy a 50% stake in Indian company Adani Green Energy’s solar unit, Tom Heggarty, principal analyst with Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Transition Practice, said: “Total has been extremely active in the power and renewables M&A market as it seeks to diversify its activities and grow its exposure to the zero-carbon power sector."
During the webinar, Wood Mackenzie experts discussed: 1. Of the pure plays (ex: Cabot), who looks best positioned to weather low prices in the long-term? 2. Hedging portfolios: How much time do they have? 3. Debt: Who is most at risk of breaching a covenant in 2020 in the Appalachia and how do maturities factor in? 4. What actions can operators work towards in the near-term to address these issues?
The OPEC+ meeting broke up without a deal, what does it mean for the markets?
As global markets reel in the wake of the oil price crash, Wood Mackenzie’ corporate analysis team believes the price collapse could be the trigger for a new phase of deep industry restructuring - one that rivals the changes seen in the late-1990s.
Survival mode has returned to the oil and gas sector as the oil price rout deepens. Corporate financials are in better shape than during the 2014/2015 crash, but room for manoeuvre is limited. Can companies cope with prices this low?
The upstream oil and gas sector faces unprecedented uncertainty. It is clear oil companies must act quickly. Cuts to discretionary investment will be immediate and deep. While there are parallels to 2015-16, many things have moved on since the last downturn.
The North Sea has weathered several storms in its 50-year existence. But the events of the past few weeks mean the sector is entering uncharted waters. The coronavirus pandemic and collapse in OPEC+ production restraint has seen Brent reach its lowest point since 2003.
The coronavirus pandemic is reducing oil demand. The OPEC+ production restraint agreement fell apart on 6 March and Saudi Arabia is rapidly increasing supply. The result: Brent crude has plunged to less than US$30/bbl. This will have a significant impact on currently producing fields and future supply. How low can the price go before different sources of production become uneconomic? Where are production shut-ins most likely? Can governments influence the result?
Faced with the double whammy of the oil price crash and the coronavirus pandemic, Africa’s upstream sector looks set to slash capital spending by around 33% in 2020. Similar cuts to operating costs are also targeted by producers to stay cash-flow neutral. Unlike the 2015-16 price crash, this time nothing is sacrosanct: some operators will even wield the axe on committed spend, as well as the discretionary expenditure.
The global oil market has been hit hard with collapsing demand while OPEC+ abandoned its production restraint and supply began rising. Topics will include: • The outlook for global oil demand in 2020 – how low can it go? • China demand is stabilizing – Will US and Europe follow that path? • The impact of low oil prices on US Lower 48 • OPEC and non-OPEC supply: What is up and what is down • Implications for 2020-2021 oil prices
The Majors have reacted swiftly to the oil price collapse. What are the levers they can pull if oil prices remain low? • Have they cut enough? • Have the cuts been to the bone? • Can M&A save the day? • Are dividends at risk?
Since OPEC+’s failure to agree on production restraint on 5-6 March, the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic have become far clearer, sparking a crisis in the oil market as prices fell and supply ramped up. The problem for these producers is the scale of the fall in oil demand, especially during April and forecast for Q2 2020. No matter the size of the varying forecasts, they all point to a challenging market that puts pressure on storage space and prices.
Commenting after Shell announced its intention to become net-zero company by 2050, Luke Parker, vice president, corporate analysis, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “This is an evolution of the net carbon footprint ambition that Shell unveiled in November 2017.
How can India attain its net zero emissions goal by 2070, in line with global pledges to reach net zero emissions by mid-century? Wood Mackenzie analyses the scenario in its latest report ‘India energy transition pathways 2070’, concluding that the country must radically transform its energy landscape and prioritise renewable energy, electrification, hydrogen adoption, and carbon removal strategies.
The Asia Pacific region is forecast to invest US$3.3 trillion in power generation over the next 10 years, with 49% earmarked for wind and solar, and 12% for energy storage, according to latest Wood Mackenzie analysis.
Large oil and gas reserves in the Middle East have resulted in especially low domestic energy prices and provide little incentive to transition to low carbon alternatives, according to Wood Mackenzie’s Middle East Energy Transition Outlook report.
After three years of decline, oil and gas production is growing again across Sub-Saharan Africa. Traditional oil producers Nigeria and Angola are increasing investment and activity. Angola's exit from OPEC is a statement of its ambition. Elsewhere, growth projects are progressing in Senegal/Mauritania, Cote d'Ivoire, Namibia and Mozambique. Join our experts on Wednesday 14th February where they will discuss two recent reports - 'Sub-Saharan Africa upstream: 2023 in review' and '5 things to look for in 2024'. A main presentation will be followed by Q&A.
2023 was a year in which the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region consolidated 2022’s gains. 2024 heralds much uncertainty: an expansion of OPEC quotas will impact short term oil production across the region while capacity expansion continues apace.
IOCs have just been through one of their toughest ever years. But the sector is primed for a V-shaped free cash flow recovery, potentially to record levels. What’s fuelling the shift in fortunes, and how will it shape corporate priorities?
At present, China accounts for almost 75% of global lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity and this share is set to increase through the short term with its build-out of new facilities.
Japan’s trading houses are re-thinking their long-term strategies around upstream investment.
Led by Asia, and with vaccine roll-out underway, global economic growth should bounce back strong in 2021. It sets the scene for a much better year in commodity markets. But do surging oil, gas and metals prices point to something more lasting?
This will be a defining year for the upstream supply chain, with many service sector companies facing stark decisions about their future direction. Read our predictions and expert analysis in ‘Upstream supply chain: 4 things to look for in 2021’.
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