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Wood Mackenzie’s latest analysis shows over US$5 trillion of investments would be needed for China to reach its pathway for carbon-neutrality by 2060.
India is expected to overtake China as the world’s largest liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) residential sector market by 2030.
The gas transit and supply contracts between Russia and Ukraine expire at 10 am on 1 January 2020 (Moscow time) – the future of Ukraine transit remains the largest uncertainty for global gas markets in 2020. Murray Douglas, director, European gas at global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie, said: “Ukraine remains the major transit route for Russian gas into Europe – over 76 billion cubic metres (cm) will be transported via Ukraine this year."
The level of uncertainty and anxiety among upstream producers and supply chain has rarely been higher. In 2020, decision-making will be more heavily influenced by sentiment surrounding the energy transition, political upheaval and trade disputes than in previous years. This adds to the ever-present risks of unexpected supply-demand imbalance, niche cost inflation or a global economic downturn. What are the biggest trends to watch in the upstream oil and gas business in 2020? Fraser McKay, head of upstream analysis at Wood Mackenzie, sees five key themes.
Wood Mackenzie has identified five themes related to project sanctions, exploration, M&A, energy transition and IMO 2020 that will impact Asia Pacific’s upstream industry in 2020.
Speaking after Chesapeake Energy filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on 28 June, Alex Beeker, principal analyst on Wood Mackenzie’s corporate upstream team, said: “It’s difficult to point to another company that has made more of a widespread impact on the US shale sector than Chesapeake.
French major Total has been named the upstream industry’s most-admired explorer, an accolade awarded in conjunction with Wood Mackenzie’s industry-leading annual Exploration Survey.
Using renewable energy to power liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants in Asia Pacific could reduce emissions by about 8%, says Wood Mackenzie.
Indonesia’s LNG demand is expected to be resilient against the coronavirus-led global economic downturn, says Wood Mackenzie. The country’s H2 2020 LNG demand could hit 3.1 million tonnes (Mt), a 1.2 Mt or 63% increase year-on-year.
Achieving the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement will require more than simply avoiding carbon. To cap global warming at 1.5°C or even 2°C, carbon removal will be essential. Research from global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk business (Nasdaq:VRSK), shows the key to effective large-scale carbon removal is unlocking potential economies of scale through basin-wide carbon capture and storage (CCS), effectively providing a community answer to a global problem.
The liquefied natural gas (LNG) long term contract market and LNG spot market are travelling in opposite directions. The long-term buyers’ market is only likely to end when it becomes clear that demand will outstrip new supply available from Qatar and Russia, global energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said.
Though set to become the world’s third largest gas producer by 2027, China’s imports will still grow in the long term. One key contributing factor is lower forecast in domestic gas production particularly in shale gas and coal bed methane (CBM), according to recent research by Wood Mackenzie.
For the second consecutive year, French major TotalEnergies has been named the upstream industry’s most-admired explorer, an accolade awarded as part of with Wood Mackenzie’s industry-leading annual Exploration Survey.
The OPEC+ meeting, held in Vienna on 23 June 2018, confirmed Saudi Arabia and Russia’s high-level commitment to co-operate to manage the oil market.
On 22 June 2018, oil producers' group OPEC delivered a compromise which avoided a decision to fully lift production restraint by instead agreeing to lower its adherence to the current accord from the current 152% to 100%, a clever way to increase output without officially agreeing on an end to output curbs. This should bring a total of 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) back into the market during H2 2018.
Analysis of global oil cost curves indicates that many conventional pre-FID projects – even deepwater developments - are now competitive on a breakeven basis with US Lower 48 tight oil. However, this competitiveness has come at the expense of volumes. The trade-off of cost efficiency versus volumes means that in the medium- to long-term, the cost of supply is set to increase, highlighting the US Lower 48’s role as an important marginal barrel producer.
According to a new report by Wood Mackenzie, coal will continue to be the dominant fuel source in power generation, peaking at 2027 before slowing down and accounting for 36% of the region’s generation mix in 2040.
Wood Mackenzie has identified the five most likely disposal candidates after ExxonMobil signalled the start of its Asia Pacific divestment programme. Together, these opportunities are worth US$5 billion, and could contribute a third of the Supermajor's global divestment target.
Natural resources research and consultancy Wood Mackenzie launches the world’s first Global Upstream Valuation solution, enabling organisations from the largest oil and gas companies to global banks to value assets around the globe in seconds.
The energy transition is undoubtedly impacting corporate upstream strategies in significant and disruptive ways. Coupled with the post-2014 downturn in oil prices, Wood Mackenzie sees seismic changes in the way the industry allocates capital across development, exploration and in particular M&A.
Wood Mackenzie’s latest report reveals that LNG sellers with contracts linked to JCC (Japan Crude Cocktail) could lose some US$15 billion in unearned revenues. This is a result of the IMO 2020 regulation limiting sulphur content of marine fuels to up to 0.5%, which directly affects the price of sour crudes such as those composing the JCC mix. The IMO 2020 kicks in on 1st January 2020.
OPEC+ gathers today and tomorrow to decide if the group should roll over its production restraint agreement or consider deeper cuts. The current agreement to reduce output by 1.2 million b/d runs to end March 2020. Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, said: “The idea of deeper cuts has been broached, but we consider that less likely to reach full agreement than a rollover of the standing agreement. The need for production restraint is clear. Slower US production growth is not enough to offset the ongoing imbalance between global supply and demand.”
It will be a noteworthy year for the North Sea – companies will increase production for the first time since 2017 and the outlook for both exploration and investment is looking healthy. The region will remain a global hotspot for deals as the corporate landscape continues to evolve. Crucially, the North Sea will also see major steps towards decarbonisation.
Wood Mackenzie has identified six themes that will impact Asia Pacific’s gas and LNG markets in 2020.
This year may prove to be a strong one for the refining sector, but 2020 has had a difficult start. Wood Mackenzie expects some turbulence this year as a number of factors come together – geopolitical risk, the impact of IMO 2020 regulations, and US tight oil production slowing, among them.
The OPEC+ meeting broke up without a deal, what does it mean for the markets?
As global markets reel in the wake of the oil price crash, Wood Mackenzie’ corporate analysis team believes the price collapse could be the trigger for a new phase of deep industry restructuring - one that rivals the changes seen in the late-1990s.
Wood Mackenzie’s latest analysis reveals that Australia’s next wave of LNG projects are likely to be delayed.
The coronavirus pandemic is reducing oil demand. The OPEC+ production restraint agreement fell apart on 6 March and Saudi Arabia is rapidly increasing supply. The result: Brent crude has plunged to less than US$30/bbl. This will have a significant impact on currently producing fields and future supply. How low can the price go before different sources of production become uneconomic? Where are production shut-ins most likely? Can governments influence the result?
Faced with the double whammy of the oil price crash and the coronavirus pandemic, Africa’s upstream sector looks set to slash capital spending by around 33% in 2020. Similar cuts to operating costs are also targeted by producers to stay cash-flow neutral. Unlike the 2015-16 price crash, this time nothing is sacrosanct: some operators will even wield the axe on committed spend, as well as the discretionary expenditure.
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