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Obstacles to M&A have abounded these last three years. Money’s been tight, and for many companies acquisitive growth wasn’t needed after a period of heavy of investment earlier in the decade.
What are the prospects for tight oil outside the US? It's a question frequently asked on my travels, and with good reason. If US tight oil can emerge so quickly to disrupt the market, perhaps other plays out there might have the same effect.
Why feeding the dog can undermine trust in the oil industry
Low oil prices, severe financial stretch, even moments of existential contemplation – it’s hardly been the right environment for successful business development.
US tight oil’s second phase of growth is well underway. We expect tight oil production to double from 4.7 million b/d today to around 9.5 million b/d in the mid-2020s – and our view is by no means the most bullish.
The intensifying drilling up of the Permian Basin in Texas isn’t just delivering rapid growth in tight oil. There are huge volumes of gas too, the effects of which are rippling out into the US market and may have big implications for global gas prices too.
If the demand side of the equation is relatively predictable, oil supply is notoriously difficult. Many of the market’s most colourful moments through history have revolved around supply, with OPEC at the centre of most in the last six decades.
Is the oil industry on its way to recovery? Sanctioned projects are smaller and cheaper, while US tight oil buffers the decline in conventional spend.
The biggest current recruiter in upstream? Digitalisation, by a distance. Technology is already playing a part in downstream’s recovery from its lows a few years ago.
New thinking and new ways are needed if operators are to usher in a new era of investment in conventional projects. A dip in oil prices below US$50/bbl may be just what’s needed to concentrate minds and encourage companies to challenge industry conventions.
‘Underwhelmed’ sums up investors’ indifferent response to the Majors’ Q1 results. What does upstream have to do to win back favour?
We forecast the share of gas in the peer group’s production will increase from 42% currently to over 50% by the end of the 2020s. ENI and BP will reach 60%, which is also Total’s 2035 target. There are three main themes behind the ‘dash for gas’.
How do traditional LNG suppliers, a group dominated by some of the biggest oil and gas producers, play a part in sorting things out? As the industry gathers in Tokyo for Gastech, we think there are four main elements that need addressed.
Our Corporate Analysis team, led by Tom Ellacott, shows that for the 60 companies we cover in depth, net debt has increased by 22% or US$142bn since 2014.
Not long ago, growth was the big thing. This results season suggests growth targets are making a come back.
If oil markets remain oversupplied and prices modest, there’s much Upstream operators can learn from Downstream, which has emerged thriving from the doldrums of a decade ago.
Digital technology has a major part to play in the next stage of structural cost reduction, but oil and gas production is far removed from the leading edge of the 21st century tech revolution.
Chief Analyst Simon Flowers expects prices to rise and US tight oil to lead the industry out of the downturn.
More operators are hinting through this Q3 results season at redeploying rigs in the coming months, potentially kick starting what will be tight oil’s second great growth phase.
The industry needs to keep its foot on the pedal and effect a structural reset before the opportunity is lost, with signs that the down cycle may be bottoming out.
Majors’ resource capture strategies are already becoming more balanced between exploration, unconventionals, DROs and M&A.
According to Chief Analyst Simon Flowers, there is finance galore for those with the right growth story. For the rest, slim pickings.
Chief Analyst Simon Flowers sees optimism after a flush of project FIDs, a pick up in US drilling and M&A activity.
As energy transition challenges mount, oil and gas Majors are pivoting back to upstream - while NOCs step up their low-carbon commitments. What does this mean for the industry's future?
A windfall for Russian oil producers and impetus for upstream investment
Tariffs could shake up oil and gas markets – find out how companies are preparing for price volatility, capital discipline and potential M&A opportunities in a turbulent landscape.
Surging gas demand set to push Henry Hub higher
Uncover how Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs are reshaping the energy landscape, forcing companies to adapt their strategies amidst economic uncertainty and shifting global trade dynamics
A global CCUS milestone: Northern Lights begins shipping carbon for permanent storage, setting the stage for a new era of cross-border climate solutions.
The industry needs to look beyond short-term price volatility.
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