Colombia’s natural gas market is undergoing a fundamental transformation as traditional onshore basins rapidly deplete. This shift forces the country to pivot from domestic production to coastal imports and offshore development.

Wood Mackenzie forecasts that industrial growth will drive a 1.4% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in national gas consumption through 2040. Meanwhile, supply is shifting dramatically toward Atlantic offshore discoveries, creating a critical geographic mismatch as domestic production wanes.

A Widening Gap Emerges

By 2040, the interior region will represent roughly 73% of national gas consumption, up from 63% in 2023. Conversely, interior production is projected to decline significantly, falling from 52% to just 33% of the national total.

The Sirius field, expected to begin output around 2030, will deliver substantial volumes and temporarily reduce dependence on imports. However, our analysis reveals that significant Pacific LNG capacity will be required by the late 2030s as pipeline systems reach saturation.

Infrastructure Race Intensifies

Market participants are responding with swift regasification expansion. Multiple major projects are advancing on both Atlantic and Pacific coasts, with the first facilities potentially operational by 2026-2027. Yet execution risks mount as projects face complex regulatory hurdles and social challenges

Addressing Infrastructure and Commercial Hurdles

Navigating this transition requires overcoming significant bottlenecks in the transport network, which was originally built for an interior-centered supply model. Systems must now adapt to reverse-flow operations to push coastal gas inland. Critical expansions of the pipeline network are essential to maintain flexibility and ensure supply reaches core demand centers. Commercially, the market faces challenges from distance-based tariff structures and a shift toward volatile short-term spot purchases.

The New Economics of Security

LNG imports are transitioning from seasonal stress tools to structural supply components. This shift, combined with transport network constraints, will fundamentally alter pricing dynamics across Colombia's gas market.

Our comprehensive analysis examines which offshore projects will overcome execution hurdles, which regasification terminals are most likely to deliver on schedule, and how rising import dependence will impact industrial gas prices across the interior.

The risk of demand destruction becomes pronounced if critical supply sources and infrastructure projects face delays - potentially triggering widespread losses across key industrial segments.

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Wood Mackenzie provides proprietary insights to assess project viability, execution risks, and market impacts, helping clients navigate this rapidly evolving landscape and secure reliable supply in crucial demand centres.

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