The Hormuz shock: what the data reveals about global oil markets in 2026

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in early May 2026 triggered the most significant oil supply disruption in a generation. Wood Mackenzie’s High Frequency Oil Production Monitor tracked approximately 11 million barrels per day of production shut in at peak — but the headline supply loss tells only part of the story. 

What followed played out differently in every major market - and in each case, the gap between what public announcements implied and what physical data actually showed was where the most consequential trading decisions were made. 

Drawing on real-time data from Wood Mackenzie’s High Frequency Oil Production Monitor, Global Crude Oil Storage, Refinery Intelligence, Pipeline Sensor Network and Vessel Tracker, this report sets out what actually happened - and what comes next. 

Read on for a short introduction to a few of the key themes. 

Did the market price the Gulf supply cut too fast? 

When Iraq and Kuwait announced shut-ins, markets reacted immediately. But Wood Mackenzie’s satellite flaring and storage data revealed a physical picture that looked quite different from what the price action implied. 

Did traders get ahead of the barrels — and by how much? Read our analysis in the full report.  

Is Canada’s emergence as Asia’s swing crude supplier structural or a temporary fix? 

Asian refiners moved quickly to replace lost Persian Gulf barrels with Canadian grades, and TMX flows responded accordingly. But with oil sands production growth on a collision course with takeaway capacity by 2027, the more important question is how durable this shift turns out to be. 

Read our view in the full report — including which pipeline expansions will determine the answer. 

Also in this report… 

• What is driving California’s refined product crunch — and which infrastructure solutions are most likely to resolve it? 

• Will European jet and diesel stocks recover before winter demand peaks? 

• How is Asia-Pacific restructuring its crude supply — and where will demand destruction first become visible? 

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