Southeast Asia's nuclear ambitions require US$208 billion investment by 2050

Southeast Asia's nuclear ambitions will require US$208 billion of investments to develop 25 GW of capacity by 2050, with small modular reactors (SMR) emerging as the preferred technology despite significantly higher costs, according to new Wood Mackenzie analysis. 

Currently, Southeast Asia has no operational nuclear capacity, relying heavily on coal and gas for baseload power. However, growing pressure to decarbonise and concerns over energy security are driving renewed interest in nuclear technology across the region. 

Wood Mackenzie's new report, ‘What if Southeast Asia goes nuclear?’, analyses the impact on the region if countries dramatically accelerate nuclear power deployment. This new report represents a significant shift from Wood Mackenzie's base case scenario, which forecasts no nuclear additions through 2050. 

Wood Mackenzie base case and nuclear scenario 

Source:  Wood Mackenzie 

“Nuclear power offers Southeast Asian governments an interesting proposition: emissions-free baseload power that can be deployed without major grid upgrades,” said Robert Liew, Director, Asia Pacific (excluding China) for Renewables Research at Wood Mackenzie. “Yet the region's limited operational experience raises significant risks around political opposition, cost overruns and long-term uranium fuel security.” 

SMRs technology dominate despite cost premium 

According to Wood Mackenzie, SMR technology emerges as the preferred nuclear option in the region, despite a higher generation cost of US$220/MWh by 2050, which is more than double the US$101/MWh for large conventional nuclear power plants. 

“Regardless of upfront capital requirements, small modular reactors offer significant advantages in deployment speed and regulatory complexity,” said Liew. “Historically, permitting for large nuclear plants has taken five to 15 years, with construction adding another five to 15 years on top of that. In contrast, SMRs can move from approval to operation in just two to three years if supportive policies are already in place. That rapid timeline could be transformative for markets like Southeast Asia, where the demand for faster energy transitions is only intensifying.” 

Among Southeast Asia countries, only Vietnam and the Philippines have announced plans for large nuclear facilities so far. However, Wood Mackenzie’s nuclear scenario predicts that only Vietnam is likely to deploy a pressurised water reactor (PWR) nuclear power plant. This limited adoption highlights the substantial financial and technical challenges associated with large-scale nuclear development in emerging markets.   

Vietnam leads regional nuclear development 

According to Wood Mackenzie, Vietnam will be at the forefront of nuclear development in the region, with plans to expand its capacity as early as 2030. Vietnam’s government country is aggressively aiming for its nuclear installations to reach between 10.5 and 14.0 GW by 2050. The costs associated with new nuclear PWRs are already lower than those of the planned LNG-to-power fleets, positioning nuclear energy as a competitive alternative for Vietnam. 

Other regional developments include:  

• Malaysia: Plans to deploy SMRs by 2035, targeting 1.2 GW by 2050 (delayed from original 2031 target due to regulatory challenges) 

• Philippines: Exploring SMR deployment, aiming for 2.4 GW by 2050, though Wood Mackenzie predicts only half this capacity will be achieved  

• Thailand: Potential to reintroduce nuclear with 600 MW by 2037, expanding to 3 GW by 2050 (5% of power generation mix)  

• Indonesia: 10-year electricity supply plan for 2025-2034, Rencana Umum Perencanaan Tenaga Listrik (RUPTL) includes two 250 MW SMR units, targeting 5% nuclear generation by 2040  

• Singapore: Expected to add 0.8 GW by 2050, potentially reducing reliance on imported LNG and clean electricity imports 

Source: Wood Mackenzie 

New corporate power opportunities 

Despite higher upfront costs, small modular reactors could open new opportunities in the corporate power purchase agreement (CPPA) market.  

“SMRs can broaden CPPA options for reliable, low-emission baseload power in wholesale markets,” said Liew. “This directly addresses a critical gap in the region's clean energy offerings for large corporate buyers seeking reliable renewable alternatives.” 

The analysis shows that national utilities will likely emerge as key off-takers for Southeast Asian nuclear power, often co-investing in projects through public-private partnerships to bridge significant capital requirements while sharing development risks. 

Wood Mackenzie expects nuclear power to enable lower wholesale power prices in higher cost liberalised markets such as Singapore and the Philippines, where price sensitivity is driving adoption decisions, creating a compelling economic case despite substantial upfront investment requirements. 

“While nuclear offers a clear pathway to emissions reduction and energy security, the substantial investment requirements and technological risks require careful consideration by regional policymakers and investors,” Liew concluded. “The success of the region's nuclear dream will depend on developing appropriate regulatory frameworks and securing experienced international partners.”