Hydrogen: 5 things to look for in 2026

This will be a year of reckoning for the hydrogen sector. After the optimism of 2024 and the sobering realities of 2025, the market is entering a new phase, marked by a fundamental reassessment of what drives project economics. While the challenges of securing offtake, managing costs and navigating regulatory complexity persist, we are seeing a clearer picture of exactly what will drive commercial scale – and which markets will lead.  

Drawing on unique insight from Lens Hydrogen, Hydrogen: 5 things to look for in 2026 sets out some of the critical developments that will define the sector in 2026, shaping the trajectory of hydrogen investment and project development for years to come.  

Fill in the form for your complimentary copy, and read on for a short introduction to a few of the key themes. 

Non-RFNBO project lift-off?  

Europe’s strict Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin (RFNBO) rules have been widely criticised as incompatible with a timely ramp-up of green hydrogen supply. The added costs to producers can be around US$1.0-2.0/kg in many cases, creating a significant barrier to project development.  

However, 2026 will mark a turning point. The publication of the Low-Carbon Fuels Delegated Act in November 2025 provided long-awaited clarity for producers of non-RFNBO hydrogen, including blue. More significantly, the European Commission confirmed it will open a portion of the next Hydrogen Bank auction budget to non-RFNBO electrolytic projects, signalling a recognition of industry concerns. 

How will this shift in sentiment impact policy support for low-carbon hydrogen? Will it spark large-scale final investment decisions (FIDs)? Read our view in the full report.  

Will Middle East hydrogen project gain momentum – or is a retreat on the cards?  

The promise of the Middle East playing a leading role in hydrogen market development has faltered since the NEOM Green Hydrogen Project took FID in May 2023. Projects in the region, being export-oriented, have felt the largest impact from policy failures in Europe and Northeast Asia.  

In 2025, cracks began to appear. Air Products underwent a shareholder coup, partly due to NEOM’s failure to secure offtake. Saudi Aramco revised down blue ammonia targets significantly. And Oman ended the year with two major cancellations from BP, Engie and POSCO. 

Will 2026 follow the same path? Read the full report for our view of Middle East volumes in the coming year – and whether projects in the region could be at risk of cancellation or significant scale-backs. 

Also in Hydrogen: 5 things to look for in 2026… 

Will aggressive auction bids translate into operating projects in India? Will investment in ammonia crackers reach commercial scale? And what hybrid production strategies do we expect to see emerge as developers seek to maximise revenue across fragmented markets?  

Find out more in the full report. Fill in the form at the top of the page for your complimentary copy.