Future wind installations: the great divide between Chinese scale and Western strongholds

Wood Mackenzie's latest Global Wind Turbine OEMs Market Share Forecast reveals a fundamental shift in the global wind industry. Chinese manufacturers are positioned to reap the benefits of the domestic demand while pursuing international opportunities aggressively, connecting 1 TW, which represents two-thirds of global wind capacity from 2025 to 2034. On the other hand, Western turbine makers retain strongholds in mature markets through established relationships, energy security concerns, and protectionist policies. 

The top 10 wind turbine original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will collectively account for 98% of global grid connections during this period, with Chinese companies securing four of the top five global rankings. 

Chinese OEMs capitalise on western retreat to core markets 

Chinese manufacturers are leveraging robust domestic growth, aggressive international expansion strategies, and up to 32% cost advantages over Western competitors to capture significant market share. Goldwind and Envision are forecast to lead the charge, each exceeding 200 GW of installations over the next decade, followed by MingYang and Windey in the top five rankings. 

Chinese OEMs are projected to capture 27% of capacity installed outside China from 2025 to 2034, deploying over 200 GW internationally during the forecast period. This expansion focuses on emerging markets across Belt and Road Initiative countries. 

The Chinese advantage stems from substantial domestic market scale, lower manufacturing costs, expertise in power system integration, and Western competitors' value-over-volume strategies that have created international market opportunities. 

Western OEMs set growth despite loss of market shares and territory 

Despite losing overall market share, leading Western manufacturers are forecast to maintain growth trajectories in their core markets. Vestas will remain the largest Western OEM and secure a position in the global top three, leveraging its strong track record and geographic diversification to achieve 5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next decade. 

Siemens Gamesa and Nordex are projected to grow at 11% and 5% CAGR, respectively. Western OEMs maintain commanding positions in their home territories, controlling 95%+ market share in Europe and North America, enabling continued growth despite the global shift toward Chinese manufacturers. 

Offshore market trends 

The offshore wind segment presents distinct competitive dynamics, with Siemens Gamesa and Vestas controlling 92% of global markets outside China. However, Chinese manufacturers are making significant inroads, with MingYang leveraging domestic offshore leadership to target international expansion opportunities, particularly in floating wind applications where Western OEMs remain cautious. 

Global offshore turbine demand is projected to increase 84% over the forecast period, with unit demand doubling despite larger turbine adoption. This growth trajectory presents opportunities for both established Western offshore leaders and emerging Chinese competitors seeking international market penetration, particularly as Chinese OEMs deploy proven domestic technologies internationally. 

Technology divergence between western and Chinese OEMs accelerates 

A significant technological divergence is emerging between Western and Chinese manufacturers' strategic approaches. Chinese OEMs are aggressively scaling turbine sizes, with onshore turbines featuring 220+ meter rotor diameters expected to comprise 81% of grid connections in China over the next decade. In the offshore segment, 50% of Chinese turbines deployed will exceed 20 MW capacity. 

Conversely, Western OEMs are prioritizing optimisation of returns from existing platforms rather than pursuing rapid scaling. This strategic difference reflects Western manufacturers' focus on value over volume, while Chinese competitors emphasize aggressive capacity expansion and technological advancement through larger turbine platforms. 

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