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US tight oil’s second phase of growth is well underway. We expect tight oil production to double from 4.7 million b/d today to around 9.5 million b/d in the mid-2020s – and our view is by no means the most bullish.
If the demand side of the equation is relatively predictable, oil supply is notoriously difficult. Many of the market’s most colourful moments through history have revolved around supply, with OPEC at the centre of most in the last six decades.
Is the oil industry on its way to recovery? Sanctioned projects are smaller and cheaper, while US tight oil buffers the decline in conventional spend.
The biggest current recruiter in upstream? Digitalisation, by a distance. Technology is already playing a part in downstream’s recovery from its lows a few years ago.
New thinking and new ways are needed if operators are to usher in a new era of investment in conventional projects. A dip in oil prices below US$50/bbl may be just what’s needed to concentrate minds and encourage companies to challenge industry conventions.
Andrew Latham, our Head of Exploration Research, has built a global creaming curve for conventional exploration outside the USL48. Three themes stand out.
The firmer oil price we expect can only embolden the already resurgent US tight oil industry which is on course to displace the 1 million b/d OPEC has cut within the year. Three main aspects of the decision stand out.
‘Underwhelmed’ sums up investors’ indifferent response to the Majors’ Q1 results. What does upstream have to do to win back favour?
Why have oil prices come under renewed downward pressure? Our Macro Oils team, led by Ed Rawle, sees three main reasons.
Canada's investor sentiment soured by environmental concerns and competition for capital from tight oil have already begun to reshape the domestic corporate landscape.
Not long ago, growth was the big thing. This results season suggests growth targets are making a come back.
If oil markets remain oversupplied and prices modest, there’s much Upstream operators can learn from Downstream, which has emerged thriving from the doldrums of a decade ago.
Despite the uptick in numbers, investment in greenfield conventional projects is stuck at a low ebb.
Digital technology has a major part to play in the next stage of structural cost reduction, but oil and gas production is far removed from the leading edge of the 21st century tech revolution.
Chief Analyst Simon Flowers expects prices to rise and US tight oil to lead the industry out of the downturn.
Although the Presidency does not officially begin until January 20th 2017, the dearth of concrete policy proposals leaves a high level of uncertainty around the priorities of a Trump administration.
More operators are hinting through this Q3 results season at redeploying rigs in the coming months, potentially kick starting what will be tight oil’s second great growth phase.
Majors’ resource capture strategies are already becoming more balanced between exploration, unconventionals, DROs and M&A.
OPEC’s plan for production cuts signals a desire to support prices, even if the battle to wrest control of the market seems barely half won.
Chief Analyst Simon Flowers sees optimism after a flush of project FIDs, a pick up in US drilling and M&A activity.
As energy transition challenges mount, oil and gas Majors are pivoting back to upstream - while NOCs step up their low-carbon commitments. What does this mean for the industry's future?
A windfall for Russian oil producers and impetus for upstream investment
Surging gas demand set to push Henry Hub higher
The industry needs to look beyond short-term price volatility.
US LNG confidence is high, but is the industry heading toward oversupply? Explore the risks and opportunities revealed at Gastech 2025
How much new oil is needed? Can AI analogues help unlock the additional barrels and close the supply gap? Will AI make subsurface teams redundant?
From AI’s power surge to oil’s comeback, here are six key takeaways from ADIPEC 2025 - the world’s biggest energy conference shaping the future of global energy
From volatile geopolitics and falling LNG prices to AI-driven power demand and shifting investment, these five themes will define the global energy landscape in 2026
A cold snap exposed just how interconnected global gas markets have become and why volatility is here to stay
Simon covers energy markets and geopolitics, analyzing how global crises shape oil, gas, and LNG supply and pricing
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