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OPEC+ today (6 June 2020) agreed a one-month extension of the 9.7 million barrels per day (b/d) production cut. The extension will tighten the market further and could see Brent prices rise from the current $40/bbl toward $45-to-$50/bbl.
OPEC held its scheduled bi-annual meeting virtually on 30 November 2020. Though the group was unable to reach an agreement at that meeting, up for discussion is whether the production restraint would be eased starting 1 January 2021.
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key themes – OPEC+ production, Covid-19 developments, and the energy transition.
Since OPEC+’s failure to agree on production restraint on 5-6 March, the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic have become far clearer, sparking a crisis in the oil market as prices fell and supply ramped up. The problem for these producers is the scale of the fall in oil demand, especially during April and forecast for Q2 2020. No matter the size of the varying forecasts, they all point to a challenging market that puts pressure on storage space and prices.
On 22 June 2018, oil producers' group OPEC delivered a compromise which avoided a decision to fully lift production restraint by instead agreeing to lower its adherence to the current accord from the current 152% to 100%, a clever way to increase output without officially agreeing on an end to output curbs. This should bring a total of 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) back into the market during H2 2018.
Will oil demand growth recover in 2020? Is global supply still growing apace? How is US tight oil investment and production being affected by negative investor sentiment? Have the production cuts of 2019 balanced the market? Do they need to be extended or adjusted? Will fundamentals or geopolitics determine oil prices? We answer some of the big questions on OPEC’s agenda ahead of its December meeting in Vienna.
Dwindling spare OPEC capacity leaves market vulnerable to disruption. Learn more.
After the historic OPEC+ agreement to cut production, Dan Brouillette explained the US role in the talks and its view of the oil market.
The all-electric movement threatens future gas demand, OPEC+ oil producers consider an output cut, and the warm winter is hitting gas prices.
A solar slowdown, relief for OPEC+, the rise of blue hydrogen, and other trends to watch out for in the year ahead
The first Edge was published in December 2015. To mark the 300th edition, here are our top game-changers in energy markets over the last eight years.
The global oil market has been hit hard with collapsing demand while OPEC+ abandoned its production restraint and supply began rising. Topics will include: • The outlook for global oil demand in 2020 – how low can it go? • China demand is stabilizing – Will US and Europe follow that path? • The impact of low oil prices on US Lower 48 • OPEC and non-OPEC supply: What is up and what is down • Implications for 2020-2021 oil prices
The coronavirus outbreak has derailed OPEC+, thrown the oil market into turmoil and sent an already unloved sector into freefall. What are the implications?
What can we expect in the world of energy in 2024. A solar slowdown, relief for OPEC+, and the rise of blue hydrogen are among Wood Mackenzie analysts’ predictions for the year ahead.
The oil price has been on a bull run for over a year. Fundamentals are improving with oil demand bouncing back towards pre-pandemic highs as the global economy recovers. But OPEC+ is also playing a key role in rebalancing the market after the crisis of 2020. How much further could prices go?
This attack has material implications for the oil market, as a loss of 5 million barrels per day of supplies from Saudi Arabia cannot be met for long by existing inventories and the limited spare capacity of the other OPEC+ group members. A geopolitical risk premium will return to the oil price.
The return of Iranian exports to the oil market in 2021 was a clear risk. If sanctions are lifted, how much oil could Iran produce and how quickly? What wiggle room would OPEC+ have to accommodate Iran's exports? What would be the effect on the oil price?
The 2020 oil price crash is very different from the 2015 crash. Supply chain leaders will need to consider their contingency plans.
2023 was a year in which the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region consolidated 2022’s gains. 2024 heralds much uncertainty: an expansion of OPEC quotas will impact short term oil production across the region while capacity expansion continues apace.
Government starts pulling the levers to bolster the economy
The coronavirus pandemic is reducing oil demand. The OPEC+ production restraint agreement fell apart on 6 March and Saudi Arabia is rapidly increasing supply. The result: Brent crude has plunged to less than US$30/bbl. This will have a significant impact on currently producing fields and future supply. How low can the price go before different sources of production become uneconomic? Where are production shut-ins most likely? Can governments influence the result?
Where new oil supply to 2030 will come from and what it costs
Wood Mackenzie projects that Brent crude oil prices will average $73.00 per barrel (bbl) in 2025, according to its latest market outlook. The forecast considers various geopolitical and economic factors, including potential peace talks between Russia and the US regarding the Ukraine conflict, ongoing tariffs, and sanctions against Iran.
Brent crude oil prices are projected to average $73 per barrel in 2025, down $7 per barrel per barrel from 2024, according to Wood Mackenzie’s latest monthly oil market outlook. The $73 per barrel forecast for this year is revised down $0.40 per barrel from the early February monthly report.
May WTI futures settled at -$37.63 on April 20. Get the latest analysis from Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils.
Share price movements can be a good early indicator of changing fortunes. The oil and gas sector had a great month in September, jumping 8% and outperforming the broader global stock market by 6%. It’s more than just rotational buying.
The oil market has come to life, with prices finally delivering on our expectations for 2023. Our oil experts, Ann-Louise Hittle and Alan Gelder, join Simon Flowers to discuss where the market goes from here and what this could mean for the economy and politics.
Today’s geopolitical temperature is close to boiling point. So why haven’t oil prices leapt in response, as we’ve seen in the past?
What might happen over the next 12 months? We explore six key trends.
Wood Mackenzie releases its Oil markets: 5 things to look for in 2022 report which discusses the uncertainties and issues impacting global demand, oil supply and refining markets this year.
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