European natural gas winter outlook 2025

Watch the replay of our expert-led session for a clear perspective on what lies ahead for the European natural gas market this winter.

In this recent webinar, analysts from Wood Mackenzie’s new short-term Euro S&D unpack the latest market intelligence, including geopolitical developments in Ukraine and Egypt, shifting coal-to-gas economics, and insights from our short-term LNG modelling.

In the webinar, our analysts highlighted several important insights that shed light on current market dynamics and what to watch for this winter:

Key Market Insights from the Webinar:

• We approach the market from an economic perspective: low prices typically trigger supply destruction and stimulate demand. When prices are at their weakest and market sentiment is most bearish, our forecast highlights the bullish risks these low price levels create.
• We discuss how summer began with a strongly bearish outlook, but most of those risks now appear largely priced in—with weather-related uncertainties as the primary exception. The recent weakness in TTF prices is contributing to a tightening of fundamental balances further along the curve, reinforcing the potential for a shift in market sentiment.