What defined gas trading in 2025: five moments that mattered

Gas trading in 2025 was shaped by abrupt disruptions, shifting trade flows, and key milestones in North American and European supply. While many of the market shocks were short-lived, they carried longer-term implications for flexibility, system resilience, and the global LNG balance. These five developments were the most consequential.

5. LNG Canada moves toward first production

LNG Canada entered the final stage of commissioning in early 2025. Initial heat signatures from Train 1 were detected on 28 January, marking the first observable step toward liquefaction operations. The arrival of the cool-down cargo aboard the Maran Gas Roxana on 2 April represented a critical milestone, confirming the project’s transition from testing to pre-production readiness.

As Canada prepares to add new West Coast export capacity, traders refocused on Pacific Basin balances, JKM–TTF spreads, and evolving competition for Asian demand. The project’s start-up trajectory remains one of the most closely monitored supply developments heading into 2026.

4. US–Canada gas trade declines amid tariff uncertainty

On 4 March, US natural gas imports from Canada fell to 4.5 Bcf — the lowest volume recorded in 2025 and well below the 10.4 Bcf peak seen in January. The drop coincided with the introduction of 10% US tariffs on Canadian energy and minerals and subsequent retaliatory measures from Ottawa.

Despite the political timing, fundamentals told a different story. We observed that import flows closely mirrored fluctuations in US demand, suggesting that the downturn reflected weather-driven consumption and regional balancing dynamics more than structural disruption.

Nevertheless, the episode reinforced how quickly trade-related headline risk can reshape market expectations, basis spreads, and cross-border hedging strategies.

3. Europe’s summer injection surge validates bearish forecasts

In April, our European Supply & Demand outlook identified a bearish setup for TTF through the summer, driven by expected storage overperformance and strong LNG inflows. Prices fell by nearly €5/MWh as the summer progressed, validating early-season projections.

Storage levels outpaced both market consensus and our own initial trajectory, supported by mild weather, robust renewable generation, and a sharp rise in spot-optimized LNG deliveries. By late August, inventories were tracking toward 90% — well above early-year expectations.

The episode underscored the importance of real-time supply and demand intelligence in one of the world’s most volatile gas markets.

 2. Sabine Pass outages widen spreads and reshape near-term flows

Infrared monitoring captured a Train 3 trip at Sabine Pass at 2:12 a.m. on 29 May, followed two days later by Train 4 going offline. The outages, paired with Creole Trail pipeline maintenance upstream, contributed to sustained triple-digit storage injections and one of the widest cash-to-prompt spreads observed this year.

With feed gas flows lagging behind observed heat signatures, traders who incorporated real-time facility monitoring held a decisive informational advantage. The event highlighted the increasing importance of infrastructure visibility as US LNG grows more influential in global balance dynamics.

 1. Cameron LNG suffers a full facility shutdown

One of the most impactful trading events of the year occurred on 27 October, when all three trains at Cameron LNG shut down unexpectedly around 1:30 a.m. Central Time. Infrared monitors detected the outage immediately, while pipeline-reported feed gas volumes were not updated for more than 12 hours.

The sudden loss of roughly 2 bcfd of feed gas temporarily tightened Gulf Coast balances and injected volatility into prompt-month pricing, basis markets, and transatlantic LNG spreads. The information gap between physical operations and pipeline reporting created considerable intraday dislocation — and a clear advantage for those equipped with real-time monitoring.

The incident reinforced how critical infrastructure transparency has become to trading performance, especially as global LNG markets grow more interconnected.

Honourable mentions

Several additional developments shaped regional and seasonal trading patterns:

• A widespread blackout in Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula underscored rising risks from off-spec gas and grid constraints.
• US natural gas production proved more resilient than expected during early-year cold weather, limiting freeze-off-related volatility.
• US ethane exports to China resumed after license restrictions were lifted, reversing a rapid inventory build.
• Woodside’s final investment decision for the Louisiana LNG project added another major supply source to the next decade’s pipeline of expansions.