Commodity Trading Analytics

On 27 October at around 1:30 Central Time, Cameron LNG shut down all three trains completely and unexpectedly as captured by Wood Mackenzie infrared monitors pointed at the facility’s three liquefaction trains.

Evening cycle feed gas posted high at 2.1 bcfd for the gas day prior to the outage, however, the next cycle showing the updates to feed gas did not post until the afternoon, 12 hours following the outage. The outage was confirmed by pipelines later in the day when feed gas was revised down by more than 2 bcfd.

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In April, our European Gas Supply & Demand forecasts indicated a bearish outlook for the TTF forward curve during the summer, anticipating higher storage injections than the market expected. Prices have since decreased by nearly €5/MWh, reflecting our initial April predictions. We projected storage levels would reach 87% by the end of Summer 2025 - significantly above the market view.

As summer progressed, storage injections surpassed our initial bearish forecasts. We now expect storage levels to approach 90% by the end of the season. This forecast was driven by record LNG inflows into Europe, milder weather and stronger renewable energy generation, which reduced demand and allowed for quicker refilling.

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Through the first half of summer, we are seeing the US Natural Gas market actualize just as we forecasted. Despite power load being up 2% on a temperature adjusted basis, gas demand for power is actually down 10% on the same scale. This has helped contribute to loose balances and prolonged triple digit injections through early spring/late summer just as we forecasted. So ow can gas demand for power be down while total load is up? Find out more in our Eric McGuire's full analysis. 

Middle East maritime activity shows a marked shift in vessel behaviour: ships remaining anchored or disable AIS transponders without draft changes, raising security concerns amid Iran-Israel tensions.

On 6 July, the bulk carrier Magic Seas was attacked with missiles and drone boats while transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait, carrying iron and fertilizer from China to Turkey. The vessel caught fire in the coordinated assault.

US ethane exports to China resumed in July after license requirements were lifted on July 2nd. The brief disruption pushed April inventories to 71.4 million barrels—the second-highest since 2017.

Nine vessels (4.1 million barrels) have departed for China after two weeks of zero exports, with July exports expected to normalize at 404 mb/d.

Limited alternative feedstocks make US ethane strategically important for Chinese crackers despite trade tensions. The quick inventory buildup highlights mutual market dependence.

Published 14 July 2025

Appalachia ethylene cracker, followed by visuals of a furnace stack being removed for repairs. These moments underscore the value of our proprietary refinery and petrochemical monitoring service. From emergency events to operational shifts, our platform delivers real-time intelligence that helps industry professionals stay informed and ahead of the curve.

Published 16 June 2025

Our infrared cameras detected Sabine Train 3 trip at 2:12 am on May 29th, followed by Train 4 going offline 2 days later. Since these facilities went offline, the market has seen continued triple digit injections into storage and cash-to-prompt spreads have widened significantly as Next Day Henry Hub trades at this year's lows.

The train outages coincide with Creole Trail pipeline maintenance upstream of the facilities and we are watching for their return once the pipeline maintenance wraps up. Heat signatures from the trains will likely be observed prior to feed gas increases as the facility tests trains following extended maintenance events.

A wave of unit outages at ENEOS and Idemitsu refineries in Japan over the past month has intensified the country’s need for diesel and jet fuel imports. Since early May, we have alerted subscribers to both planned and unplanned disruptions across 20 key processing units at seven refineries nationwide. 

Published 13 June 2025

Alberta wildfires encroached on production facilities in early June, leading to personnel evacuations and oil supply shut-ins. As of 8 June, the Caribou Lake fire – which is impacting production at Cenovus Christina Lake and MEG Christina Lake – continues to burn out of control.

Published 9 June 2025

Enbridge's Gray Oak pipeline completed Phase 1 expansion in April 2025, increasing capacity to 980,000 bpd. Phase 2, expected in H1 2026, will add another 40,000 bpd for total capacity of 1.02 million bpd. This expansion alleviates constraints on the Permian-to-Corpus Christi corridor and supports increased WTI exports through Enbridge's Ingleside terminal.

Published 29 May 2025

A rupture in the weld of Keystone Pipeline (600kbd) caused a spill. While the damage was relatively small, the potential impact could havebeen significant. For more details on how we manage and mitigate such incidents, visit our Pipeline Services.

Published 9 May 2025

On May 5 , 2025, a fire at the Benicia refinery located northeast of San Francisco was detected via our sensor network. This incident led to the collapse of a furnace stack and a fire that lasted for about an hour. Watch as our experts demonstrate how our sensor network captured the fire in real-time and explore the impact of the incident.

Published 9 May 2025