Global wind market set for historic growth despite current headwinds

Wood Mackenzie's Global wind power market outlook update: Q3 2025 reveals the global wind power market will achieve unparallelled milestones over the next 10 years. The industry is poised to add its second terawatt of capacity by 2030 – accomplished in just seven years compared to the 23 years it took to reach the first terawatt in 2023. 

The wind industry is on track for a record-breaking finish to 2025, with global wind capacity additions expected to reach 170 GW for the year. The sector could connect more than 70 GW in Q4 alone, marking a record quarter with gross capacity additions that exceed the total annual additions of any year before 2020. 

The forecast shows a 13% quarter-on-quarter upgrade driven by substantial onshore growth in China, with global wind capacity set to double from 2024 levels by 2032. While key markets like the US face policy-driven setbacks, the industry will achieve historic scale over the next decade. Excluding China, global cumulative wind capacity will reach 1 TW in 2031, with global capacity doubling from 2024 levels by 2034. 

Policy frameworks that once reliably drove wind sector growth are now creating significant uncertainty across major markets, challenging this trajectory. Wood Mackenzie maintains a cautious outlook, yet unprecedented industry expansion remains evident. 

Chinese market expansion accounts for the majority of global wind growth 

"China’s dominance in the wind industry is becoming more pronounced," said Sasha Bond-Smith, Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "While other established markets struggle with policy uncertainty and economic headwinds, we're witnessing an unequalled concentration of growth in China that's reshaping the industry landscape." 

The onshore wind forecast for China increased significantly this quarter, driven by data centres and demand for electrification. This acceleration reflects superior profit resilience in liberalised power markets, where wind demonstrates stronger returns compared to solar technologies. However, the offshore wind sector in China faces considerable challenges, with sea-use conflicts severely disrupting project timelines and halting construction even for projects already underway. 

The outlook upgrade this quarter positions wind to match solar power generation output over the forecast period in China, reinforcing wind's critical role in the country's power system as it pursues aggressive decarbonisation targets while managing unprecedented electricity demand growth. 

The US wind market faces fundamental restructuring as incentives expire 

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), passed in July 2025, triggers major restructuring across the US wind market, creating significant policy-driven adjustments. The legislation's termination of tax credits after 2027 has caused a rush among developers to accelerate projects to the greatest extent possible, creating a surge in near-term installations. 

This policy shift has weakened the outlook for the US sufficiently to drop it below India and Germany in 10-year additions. This represents a pivotal moment that forces developers to reassess project viability based on market fundamentals such as power demand growth and competitive positioning against other technologies. 

Onshore wind maintains momentum globally whilst offshore faces tender setbacks 

The global wind market outside of China and the US demonstrates stability, with onshore wind keeping steady growth whilst persistent headwinds undermine offshore development. Onshore projects continue to progress across Europe, Asia Pacific, and emerging markets, supported by tender outcomes and robust project pipelines. However, green hydrogen market slowdowns still limit related upside potential for wind development. 

The offshore sector encounters significant challenges, with elevated costs and tender failures constraining development across multiple regions. European policymakers face mounting pressure to sustain offshore momentum through improved contract structures, whereas emerging markets delay first commissioning timelines amid financing and technical hurdles. 

"The wind industry’s most significant transformation in decades continues to unfold," added Kárys Prado, Senior Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "From the first MW-scale turbine in 1941 to 16 GW in 2000, then 1 TW in 2023, we're now racing toward 2 TW by 2030. While achieving historic scale, success will depend on how effectively the industry navigates this new geography of growth and adapts to evolving policy landscapes."