What are the key trends shaping the energy transition?
Energy security is rewriting the energy transition
Countries are placing greater value on resilience and reducing exposure to imported energy.
Electrification is the common thread
Across every scenario, electricity plays a growing role in the global energy system.
The grid is both bottleneck and solution
Surging electricity demand is colliding with connection queues, equipment shortages and infrastructure constraints.
AI is reshaping power markets
The global data-centre buildout is creating new electricity demand, particularly in the US.
Trade is becoming more regional
Supply chains are reorganising around resilience, even as critical value chains remain globally interconnected.
Critical minerals create a new form of dependency
Electrification reduces reliance on imported fossil fuels but increases the strategic importance of minerals, processing and manufacturing.
The transition is still underway
Renewables continue to grow as power demand rises, costs fall and countries pursue greater energy independence.
A time for courage
Companies and governments must accept trade-offs and make investment decisions amid geopolitical, policy and market uncertainty.
Growth first
Economic growth and affordability take priority, keeping energy demand higher for longer.
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Base case
Our assessment of the most likely outcome of the energy system based on the evolution of current policies, technologies and market trends.
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Energy security
A security-first pathway where countries prioritise greater energy independence, accelerating electrification and ultimately lowering emissions longer-term compared with our Base Case.
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Country pledges
A faster transition in which countries achieve their announced long-term emissions reduction targets, corresponding to 2 °C global warming pathway.
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Net zero
A pathway based on the most ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement, requiring extraordinary policy action, global cooperation, capital mobilisation and technological innovation to limit warming to around 1.5 °C by 2100, following a temporary overshoot.
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Why does the energy transition need an interconnected view?
Energy markets can no longer be understood in isolation.
Electrification connects power with transport, buildings and industry. AI connects digital infrastructure with electricity and critical minerals. Energy security connects geopolitics with supply chains, domestic resources and capital allocation.
Our Energy Transition Outlook brings those connections together. Five potential futures. One connected view of what comes next.
Using Wood Mackenzie’s proprietary modelling and market intelligence, we explore how different policy, technology and economic choices could reshape energy and natural resources markets through to 2060.
Need a strategic view of the energy transition? Lens Energy Transition Scenarios delivers trusted research and modelling capabilities to navigate the energy transition in a single platform.
Energy transition outlook: regional views
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What does the energy transition mean for your business?
