Global upstream M&A: 4 things to look for in 2026

Cash-based transactions historically account for almost three-quarters of upstream deal activity. With Brent forecast to skirt below US$60/bbl in 2026, M&A will take a backseat to prioritising capital efficiency and returns.  

However, North American gas has such momentum behind it that it seems almost inevitable we will see more M&A in that space. And elsewhere, low prices never completely derail the market – indeed, they can act as a stimulant for certain types of transactions.  

So, where will the action be focused in the year ahead? Drawing on insight from our M&A Service we’ve put together our predictions for the key themes to watch out for. Fill in the form for a complimentary copy of Global upstream M&A: 4 things to look for in 2026 – and read on for a brief introduction. 

Strong fundamentals underpin US gas M&A 

Rocketing power demand and surging LNG exports are creating a massive investment opportunity for US gas. Where opportunity flows, deals follow and US unconventional gas M&A spend is poised to hit multi-year highs in 2025. We expect further transactions will follow next year. 

The bullish gas outlook is prompting USL48 E&Ps to test the ground outside core acreage, for instance. Attempting to expand primary development zones is one method. Another is delineating new areas.  

Where are the emerging hotspots? Will 2026 see deals from overseas buyers? What’s driving those deals? For more on this, read the full report.  

Operational structure, and deal structure, will flex as required 

The M&A story of 2025 was arguably the continued growth of strategic joint ventures (SVs). Two of these ventures will complete in 2026; Eni and Petronas’ southeast Asian NewCo and NEO NEXT+, the UK tie up between NEO NEXT (private equity/Repsol) and TotalEnergies UK. But we expect to see more such vehicles announced. 

Strategic joint ventures have become increasingly diverse, with tie ups involving Majors as majority, minority and equal partners to variously other Majors, NOCs and Independents, and involving both mature and growth portfolios. The drivers for partners entering each of these SVs are therefore equally diverse – from tax planning to funding growth to accessing skill sets. 

And as more companies demonstrate the flexibility of the model, more of these structures will follow.  Innovative deal structures could also help deals flow against a weak macro backdrop – read the full report to learn more.  

Also in Global upstream M&A: 4 things to look for in 2026…  

How will the current environment play into the search for scale? And what does the deal pipeline tell us about continuing strategy execution via M&A? We explore these themes in the full report. Fill in the form at the top of the page for your complimentary copy.