Upstream M&A: 4 things to look for in 2025

Deal flow wasn't huge in 2024 but another round of large-scale mergers – primarily in the US – ensured deal spend remained high. What does 2025 have in store for upstream M&A?

Drawing on insight from Lens Upstream we’ve put together our predictions for the year ahead. Fill in the form for a complimentary copy of Global upstream M&A: 4 things to look for in 2025 – and read on for a brief introduction.

The new US administration could boost deal flow, if not deal spend

We think the new US administration could boost deal flow. US deal spend surged in 2023 and remained strong in 2024, thanks to a relatively small number of large-scale corporate mergers. But deal flow has been lacklustre for five years and it appears that Presidents usually don’t make a lot of difference to deal activity. Looking back over the last three presidencies, deal flow appears to fluctuate according to industry and investor sentiment, no matter who is in the White House.

So why do we think the new administration will make a difference? The full report looks at the potential drivers of increased deal flow – and the headwinds that could stem it.

Will the NOCs step up their international M&A activity?

We think they should. But this is a question which has been asked for a decade, following the slowdown of activity from the erstwhile big-spending Chinese NOCs. In last year’s outlook we highlighted ADNOC and Saudi Aramco as being poised to hit the market in search of global gas assets. That process has begun to play out, and there’s scope for much more ahead:

• Earlier this year, ADNOC formed a partnership with BP in Egypt (Arcius Energy) and bought Galp’s stake in Mozambique Area 4. In November, it announced the creation of a US$80 billion international investment subsidiary, XRG, which houses its global chemicals, low-carbon energies, and international gas businesses (including Arcius Energy).
• Saudi Aramco grabbed fewer headlines but notably upped its stake in MidOcean to 49%.

In 2025, Aramco and ANDOC must be considered potential buyers for any strategic gas assets or companies which come to market. Among other NOCs the outlook is more mixed. Will the Chinese NOCs look to geographically pivot their portfolios? Find out more in the full report.

Also in Global upstream M&A: 4 things to look for in 2025…

The Majors enter the year as a disparate bunch with very differing outlooks – how will that play out through M&A? And while US consolidation has stolen the headlines in recent years, elsewhere a number of mid-tier domestic powerhouses have been created through buy-and-build strategies, strategic ventures and audacious mergers. What can we expect from these M&A-driven companies in 2025?

Fill in the form at the top of the page for your complimentary copy of this report.