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Speaking after French major Total announced it planned to buy a 50% stake in Indian company Adani Green Energy’s solar unit, Tom Heggarty, principal analyst with Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Transition Practice, said: “Total has been extremely active in the power and renewables M&A market as it seeks to diversify its activities and grow its exposure to the zero-carbon power sector."
During the webinar, Wood Mackenzie experts discussed: 1. Of the pure plays (ex: Cabot), who looks best positioned to weather low prices in the long-term? 2. Hedging portfolios: How much time do they have? 3. Debt: Who is most at risk of breaching a covenant in 2020 in the Appalachia and how do maturities factor in? 4. What actions can operators work towards in the near-term to address these issues?
As global markets reel in the wake of the oil price crash, Wood Mackenzie’ corporate analysis team believes the price collapse could be the trigger for a new phase of deep industry restructuring - one that rivals the changes seen in the late-1990s.
The OPEC+ meeting broke up without a deal, what does it mean for the markets?
Survival mode has returned to the oil and gas sector as the oil price rout deepens. Corporate financials are in better shape than during the 2014/2015 crash, but room for manoeuvre is limited. Can companies cope with prices this low?
The upstream oil and gas sector faces unprecedented uncertainty. It is clear oil companies must act quickly. Cuts to discretionary investment will be immediate and deep. While there are parallels to 2015-16, many things have moved on since the last downturn.
The North Sea has weathered several storms in its 50-year existence. But the events of the past few weeks mean the sector is entering uncharted waters. The coronavirus pandemic and collapse in OPEC+ production restraint has seen Brent reach its lowest point since 2003.
The global oil market has been hit hard with collapsing demand while OPEC+ abandoned its production restraint and supply began rising. Topics will include: • The outlook for global oil demand in 2020 – how low can it go? • China demand is stabilizing – Will US and Europe follow that path? • The impact of low oil prices on US Lower 48 • OPEC and non-OPEC supply: What is up and what is down • Implications for 2020-2021 oil prices
The Majors have reacted swiftly to the oil price collapse. What are the levers they can pull if oil prices remain low? • Have they cut enough? • Have the cuts been to the bone? • Can M&A save the day? • Are dividends at risk?
Faced with the double whammy of the oil price crash and the coronavirus pandemic, Africa’s upstream sector looks set to slash capital spending by around 33% in 2020. Similar cuts to operating costs are also targeted by producers to stay cash-flow neutral. Unlike the 2015-16 price crash, this time nothing is sacrosanct: some operators will even wield the axe on committed spend, as well as the discretionary expenditure.
The coronavirus pandemic is reducing oil demand. The OPEC+ production restraint agreement fell apart on 6 March and Saudi Arabia is rapidly increasing supply. The result: Brent crude has plunged to less than US$30/bbl. This will have a significant impact on currently producing fields and future supply. How low can the price go before different sources of production become uneconomic? Where are production shut-ins most likely? Can governments influence the result?
Since OPEC+’s failure to agree on production restraint on 5-6 March, the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic have become far clearer, sparking a crisis in the oil market as prices fell and supply ramped up. The problem for these producers is the scale of the fall in oil demand, especially during April and forecast for Q2 2020. No matter the size of the varying forecasts, they all point to a challenging market that puts pressure on storage space and prices.
Commenting after Shell announced its intention to become net-zero company by 2050, Luke Parker, vice president, corporate analysis, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “This is an evolution of the net carbon footprint ambition that Shell unveiled in November 2017.
The topic of environmental protection continues to feature heavily in the Two Sessions today. Wood Mackenzie experts share some initial thoughts.
OPEC+ today (6 June 2020) agreed a one-month extension of the 9.7 million barrels per day (b/d) production cut. The extension will tighten the market further and could see Brent prices rise from the current $40/bbl toward $45-to-$50/bbl.
Speaking after BP announced it was writing down as much as $17.5 billion when it reports its second quarter results, Luke Parker, vice president, corporate analysis, said: “The impairment shouldn’t come as a big surprise, but the implications – near-term and long-term – are significant.”
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