US L48 gas: injection season ends

The 2025 injection season began with storage just under 1.7 Tcf—about 27% below last year and 12% below the five-year average. Despite the low starting point, Lower 48 inventories topped out near 3.96 Tcf in early November, essentially matching last year and ending about 4% above the five-year average. Total seasonal injections will reach roughly 2.26 Tcf, the third-largest build of the past decade, behind only 2019 and just marginally below 2022.

Early-Season Drivers

Most of the season’s progress occurred in the spring. A record-tying stretch of seven consecutive triple-digit injections between late April and early June accelerated the storage recovery. The fall shoulder season was more tempered, with the largest injection of 90 Bcf recorded the week ending 10 September.

Market Outlook: Risks Tilted to the Upside

While storage is entering winter in a healthy position, price risks remain skewed upward. The recent rally above $4.50/MMBtu in the front month reflects bullish seasonal price pressures and increasingly tight daily balances, driven primarily by record and rising LNG export levels. Sustained demand growth highlights the importance of supply keeping pace heading into 2025.

Winter Expectations

Our November short-term outlook projects storage exiting winter slightly above 2 Tcf, even under relatively cold, normal-weather assumptions. Cold weather risks in December raise the possibility of lower end-of-season storage scenarios and explain the recent run-up in winter natural gas prices. With exports strong and balances tight, winter dynamics will remain sensitive to both temperature volatility and supply responsiveness.

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