Oils & chemicals: 5 things to watch for in 2025

While downstream demand recovery was lower than expected in 2024, key themes played out broadly as expected.

Global oil demand is projected to reach a new high, but the market has been plagued by concerns that demand is weaker than projected and a focus on potential over-supply, as OPEC+ withheld significant supplies throughout the year.

Meanwhile for refiners, global composite margins reset to (or just below) the five-year average. On the chemicals side, a recovery in downstream demand in H2 came in below expectations. Weaker demand coupled with over-supply meant production rationalisation was a common theme across chemical value chains, with numerous uncompetitive plants closing in 2024.

So, what will the coming year bring? We set out our predictions in Oils & chemicals: 5 things to watch for in 2025. Fill in the form to get your complimentary copy, and read on for a quick introduction to a couple of the key themes.

President Trump's re-election and the potential impact on our oil price forecast for 2025

Potential trade tariffs that stem from the re-election of President Trump present a major downside risk to the oil price outlook.

Global oil demand growth is projected to increase 1.5 million b/d in 2025, with oil demand growth across all regions except Europe. Demand growth is expected to only just outpace non-OPEC supply growth, providing limited opportunity for OPEC+ to reduce their production cuts without significantly weakening the oil price.

What’s our projection for Brent oil price? What other factors could pose downside risks? Find out more in the full report.

How China’s capacity will impact global chemicals markets

China’s capacities will continue to add pressure to global markets despite export-oriented Chinese players facing tougher conditions in 2025.

Overcapacity in China and highly integrated refinery/petrochemical production will be key to its industry competitiveness in 2025. US trade tariffs and anti-dumping duties on Chinese products, however, have the potential to materially change global trade flows.

Read the full report to see how global demand lines up against China’s capacity, and how that could shape the outlook. Plus, a look at refining margins, ethylene capacity projections, new polyolefin capacity additions and more.

Fill in the form at the top of the page for your complimentary copy.