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In any commodity market, the marginal supplier makes hay when the sun shines. Oil prices are rampant, but tight oil is not behaving quite as expected. I caught up with R.T. Dukes, Head of US Lower 48 oil supply.
Will this latest bull run in oil prices trigger a new phase of upstream M&A? The sector is feeling emboldened again – a confidence that’s justified up to a point.
Life’s good again in the upstream sector. All the hard work through the downturn is paying dividends, literally. Brent over US$70/bbl means everyone is in the money given the sector’s cash flow breakeven of US$53/bbl.
How to stay relevant? Every oil and gas company is pondering the energy transition, and how to adapt a business model that’s served well for the last century to be fit-for-purpose through the 21st and beyond.
The best accessible upstream growth opportunity in fifty years? US tight oil. Correction: the Permian Basin. Second correction: the Wolfcamp formation spread across the Delaware and Midland sub-basins.
Capital discipline or growth? It’s THE big question hanging over commodity producers, mining as much as oil and gas.
We've seen a wave of new energy deals by the Majors. The spectre of peak oil demand and disruption from renewables and EVs has sparked a response – if you can’t beat them, join them. 2017 was the year Big Oil started to position for a low-carbon future.
We've had the best year for the oil and gas industry for some time: KPIs have turned positive. Brent looks set to end 2017 over US$60/bbl, up 40% from the summer lows.
What’s the most unexpected outcome three years on from the price crash? There are a few contenders. OPEC’s zealous adherence to production restraint is right up there. US tight oil is another, briefly inconvenienced by low prices but now embarking on a second great phase of growth.
Oil and gas companies are trying to balance playing a short game and a long game. The dominant strategic theme is strict capital discipline; higher risk investment is off the agenda.
Share price movements can be a good early indicator of changing fortunes. The oil and gas sector had a great month in September, jumping 8% and outperforming the broader global stock market by 6%. It’s more than just rotational buying.
The mood has definitely changed. That much has been clear at the biannual Offshore Europe mega conference in Aberdeen.
The maths supports a bearish view for the next three years, based on our latest long-term outlook. We forecast LNG supply to increase by over 30% by 2020 as US, Australian and Russian projects crank up.
Tight oil and shale gas, through LNG exports to Europe, are likely to be cap and collar in their respective markets for the next few years – tight oil setting the ceiling price, US gas the floor.
We have raised our long-term estimates, now expecting volumes to rise from 4 million b/d currently to 10 million b/d by 2025 – 1.4 million b/d higher at peak than before.
An ‘America First’ energy policy is meant to be great news for US producers, but will these moves boost investment and company behaviour as much as the administration hopes?
After two years of retrenchment, review how 2017 is shaping up to be a year of growth for tight oil.
A strong US Dollar means weak commodities. With the greenback at record highs, and commodities buoyant, is a reverse looming?
Business development teams are back in the front line as companies look to position for longer term growth.
Our Energy view to 2035, led by Paul McConnell of our Global Trends team, distils the work of our team of analysts working across energy commodities. Five main themes leap out.
Tight oil has garnered all the plaudits in the last few months, but we can foresee in the not too distant future green field deep water projects giving tight oil a run for its money in competing for capital.
Tight oil will drive a 4% increase in global upstream investment in 2017, while investment in conventional projects will be flat at just under US$340bn.
Chief Analyst Simon Flowers sees three inter-related topics dominating our conversations with industry leaders: peak oil demand, decarbonisation, and whether US tight oil alone can meet oil demand growth.
The sharp response of the physical market to the arrival of cold weather suggests fundamentals are tight and prices could go higher, whether it’s a cold winter or not. There are four main reasons why.
As other countries suffer production declines under the pressure of low oil prices, Russia is bucking the trend. What’s different about Russia?
With the M&A market showing signs of life and the value of the M&A being done rising, the time is ripe for buyers in the upstream market.
It’s a good sound bite at a time of low prices and high uncertainty, and a reassuring message to investors about risk appetite, but what does ‘managing for margin’ really mean?
The downturn should be an opportunity for the Majors and perhaps NOCs to move into tight oil.
Fresh from a dismal round of Q4 2016 earnings, replete with weak earnings and balance sheet write downs, come new, raised growth targets from a number of the industry’s biggest players.
How can the East Med accelerate gas development? Explore five key solutions driving growth in Egypt, Israel and Cyprus.
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