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Energy markets are in the midst of profound change – we're getting used to that. But what big, identifiable key risks might lurk in the shadows in the next 12 months that could make us change our view for 2020 and beyond? Here are five.
Will oil demand growth recover in 2020? Is global supply still growing apace? How is US tight oil investment and production being affected by negative investor sentiment? Have the production cuts of 2019 balanced the market? Do they need to be extended or adjusted? Will fundamentals or geopolitics determine oil prices? We answer some of the big questions on OPEC’s agenda ahead of its December meeting in Vienna.
Big Oil’s risk appetite has changed. It needs to continue to replace reserves for the foreseeable future but is looking for lower risk options than exploration. Discovered resources can be part of the solution, though opportunities to develop a giant oil field such as Buzios in Brazil, in the heart of an industry hot spot, only come around once in a blue moon. So why the lack of bids from the Majors?
Bigger the Majors may be, but are the companies better placed to cope with future price uncertainty and the energy transition? Find out in this week's Edge.
How will the new IMO 2020 regulations affect the demand for different crudes? Will the refining industry cope with the change specification? Who will be the winners and losers among producers and refiners? Latest analysis here.
How is US tight oil performing in this febrile environment? Simon Flowers asks R.T. Dukes and his team of Lower 48 researchers.
The attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure took out over 5% of global oil supply and temporarily pushed up prices by 20%. What does the attack say about the security of oil’s supply chain?
LNG is on track for prodigious growth in the next two decades. Is the traditional business model that’s worked for six decades fit for purpose? How should a 21st-century LNG player tool up to maximise value?
Three steps to tackling climate change
Upstream investment is set to rise for the third year in a row following the 2016 low, albeit at a modest, single-digit rate. Learn more about the sources of growth.
The world needs more LNG. But LNG has been synonymous with poor project management. Can the industry deliver future projects on time and on budget?
Dwindling spare OPEC capacity leaves market vulnerable to disruption. Learn more.
Aramco’s financials are enough to turn any CEO green with envy. Why has Aramco opened its books now, and what will it do with its wealth? Get our analysis here.
Where does the real value of digitalisation lie for the global upstream industry? Simon Flowers and Greig Aitken look at three areas where technology could have the greatest impact.
The US’s premier tight oil play has been the beating heart of industry activity these last few years. Soaring rig numbers, prolific production growth and the gravitational pull of a black hole when it comes to M&A. US L48 tight oil accounted for one-third of global upstream M&A spend in the last three years, with the Permian attracting US$2 out of every US$3 of that. But have we now passed peak Permania? Simon Flowers investigates.
Could Iran Sanctions See Brent Spike to U.S.$100 a barrel? The oil market faces a precarious few months. The imposition of U.S. secondary sanctions on Iranian exports on November 5 is the critical factor behind Brent’s rally to more than U.S.$80 a barrel in October. There’s enough supply to meet demand this winter, but the margin for error is worryingly narrow.
Simon Flowers looks at what tight oil has in common with top tech stocks.
Global targets and societal pressure are driving innovation, but are we doing enough? Simon Flowers investigates.
Is US shale the paragon of upstream productivity it’s cracked up to be? As the marginal suppliers, shale gas and tight oil operators ought to be adept at managing for margin and all that’s about. Simon Flowers investigates.
What do Total, BP, Eni, CNPC, Sinopec Group have in common? Each is among the biggest oil and gas producers in the world, with a portfolio diversified geographically and across multiple resource themes.
Not long ago, West Africa was at the top of the list for international E&P companies looking for high-impact growth.
In any commodity market, the marginal supplier makes hay when the sun shines. Oil prices are rampant, but tight oil is not behaving quite as expected. I caught up with R.T. Dukes, Head of US Lower 48 oil supply.
Will this latest bull run in oil prices trigger a new phase of upstream M&A? The sector is feeling emboldened again – a confidence that’s justified up to a point.
Life’s good again in the upstream sector. All the hard work through the downturn is paying dividends, literally. Brent over US$70/bbl means everyone is in the money given the sector’s cash flow breakeven of US$53/bbl.
How to stay relevant? Every oil and gas company is pondering the energy transition, and how to adapt a business model that’s served well for the last century to be fit-for-purpose through the 21st and beyond.
The best accessible upstream growth opportunity in fifty years? US tight oil. Correction: the Permian Basin. Second correction: the Wolfcamp formation spread across the Delaware and Midland sub-basins.
Capital discipline or growth? It’s THE big question hanging over commodity producers, mining as much as oil and gas.
We've seen a wave of new energy deals by the Majors. The spectre of peak oil demand and disruption from renewables and EVs has sparked a response – if you can’t beat them, join them. 2017 was the year Big Oil started to position for a low-carbon future.
We've had the best year for the oil and gas industry for some time: KPIs have turned positive. Brent looks set to end 2017 over US$60/bbl, up 40% from the summer lows.
What’s the most unexpected outcome three years on from the price crash? There are a few contenders. OPEC’s zealous adherence to production restraint is right up there. US tight oil is another, briefly inconvenienced by low prices but now embarking on a second great phase of growth.
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