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As we look to 2020, copper is faced with a finely balanced market. For now, positive investor sentiment around copper’s fundamentals is supporting higher prices.
Chinese steel demand will likely peak this year at 890 million tonnes, a growth of 1.5%, according to Wood Mackenzie. With China responsible for half of global steel demand, Chinese government policy remains core to Wood Mackenzie’s view.
In a recently published report, Wood Mackenzie predicts the start of a downcycle in China’s petrochemical industry. A supply overhang has already hit the country’s paraxylene (PX) market, with olefins and polyolefins markets almost certain to face the same.
In Q3 2019, Tesla announced its plans to capture 1% of all car sales globally. With its current portfolio of luxury cars, the company is unlikely to meet that target by the end of the decade. However, if it launches an entry-level car priced at $25,000, Wood Mackenzie projects that Tesla will meet the 1% target as early as 2024.
The level of uncertainty and anxiety among upstream producers and supply chain has rarely been higher. In 2020, decision-making will be more heavily influenced by sentiment surrounding the energy transition, political upheaval and trade disputes than in previous years. This adds to the ever-present risks of unexpected supply-demand imbalance, niche cost inflation or a global economic downturn. What are the biggest trends to watch in the upstream oil and gas business in 2020? Fraser McKay, head of upstream analysis at Wood Mackenzie, sees five key themes.
Chinese polyester market growth is expected to sit at just below 3% in 2020, a marked decline from the strong growth seen between 2018 and 2019. This dip in performance is mainly due to slashed growth for bottle-grade PET, according to Wood Mackenzie.
The gas transit and supply contracts between Russia and Ukraine expire at 10 am on 1 January 2020 (Moscow time) – the future of Ukraine transit remains the largest uncertainty for global gas markets in 2020. Murray Douglas, director, European gas at global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie, said: “Ukraine remains the major transit route for Russian gas into Europe – over 76 billion cubic metres (cm) will be transported via Ukraine this year."
Wood Mackenzie has identified five themes related to project sanctions, exploration, M&A, energy transition and IMO 2020 that will impact Asia Pacific’s upstream industry in 2020.
According to a new report by Wood Mackenzie, China’s wind repowering market is expected to take off from 2023. More than 21 gigawatts (GW) (cumulative capacity) of China’s wind turbine fleet is expected to be repowered over the next 10 years (2019-2028).
Project cancellations and delays connecting planned projects to the electric grid will lead the US microgrid market to contract 17% from its 2018 peak by the end of this year, according to new research from Wood Mackenzie.
Chevron has given the green light to the Anchor development in deepwater US Gulf of Mexico. This is Chevron’s first greenfield final investment decision as an operator since its sanction of Big Foot and Jack/St Malo in 2010.
2019 has been a year of successes within the recycled PET (RPET) industry.
Installers have already shared anecdotes about growing residential storage volumes in California, and Wood Mackenzie expects a large uptick early next year as marketing efforts for solar-plus-storage started earlier this year bear fruit.
In the latest Australia east coast gas market research, Wood Mackenzie projects that the LNG netback price for Australia’s east coast could bottom out to A$6.50 – A$9 per gigajoule (GJ) over the next two years.
After a decade of fragmentation, the top five global turbine OEMs are strengthening their hold on the industry. By 2028, they are expected to control three quarters of the sector.
More than $350 million was invested in advanced lithium-ion technologies during the first half of 2019.
The global Biaxially Oriented Polypropylene (BOPP) film market has seen demand grow by just under 5% per annum over the last five years. The main driver of growth has been the demand for flexible packaging, particularly in China and South East Asia, according to Wood Mackenzie’s latest ‘BOPP Film Global Supply Demand Report’.
Green hydrogen production can compete with fossil fuel-based hydrogen by 2030 in Australia, Germany and Japan, should renewable power prices reach US$30 per megawatt hour (MWh), new research from global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie indicates.
New research from Wood Mackenzie indicates that the creation of a national pipeline company in China is a step in the right direction but will result in higher end-user prices in the short-term as the country tries to balance institutional reform with implementation risks.
According to Wood Mackenzie’s inaugural global solar photovoltaic (PV) asset ownership ranking (excluding China)*, the world’s top 10 solar PV asset owners now hold over 22 gigawatts (GW) of cumulative solar capacity. Collectively, the top 10 added around 2.5 GW of new capacity in 2018.
An auction-triggered awakening in Poland and a growing confidence in developers' ability to comply with local content requirements in Russia led to a 17% wind power capacity increase QoQ in Eastern Europe and Russia, according to new research from Wood Mackenzie.
Airbags are a core and growing part of the industrial textile portfolio. Current global airbag yarn demand sits at 164 ktpa and is expected to reach 237 ktpa by 2025, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie.
Fuelled by public policy and declining battery costs, global electric bus adoption is set to triple by 2025. The Chinese market - the most promising in this sector - will surpass the 1 million e-bus mark by 2023 and reach 1.3 million by 2025, according to new research from Wood Mackenzie.
Highlights from Wood Mackenzie's 2019 North America wind power outlook
Chinese president Xi Jinping’s mantra that “houses should be for living in, not for speculation” has been used to allude to the government’s policy to curb rising property prices for the past couple of years. Despite the cooling measures, steel demand in the property sector has shown resilience.
65GW of European onshore wind turbines will reach end-of-design-life by 2028. From 2019 to 2028, an average of 4GW of turbines per year that are reaching end-of-design-life will be lifetime extension (LTE) suitable, according to new research from Wood Mackenzie.
Over 650 GW of new onshore and 130 GW of new offshore wind capacity will be installed between 2018 and 2028. This will consume in excess of 5.5Mt of copper, according to a recent analysis by Wood Mackenzie.
Though set to become the world’s third largest gas producer by 2027, China’s imports will still grow in the long term. One key contributing factor is lower forecast in domestic gas production particularly in shale gas and coal bed methane (CBM), according to recent research by Wood Mackenzie.
Acquisition will extend Verisk’s expertise in commodities intelligence as part of its Wood Mackenzie business
Despite speculation that a No-Deal Brexit would have a severe impact on the UK refining industry, Wood Mackenzie’s analysis indicates that while the sector’s dynamics would shift and margins will narrow, it would not be crippled.
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