Coordinated buildout of charging infrastructure will enable US medium and heavy-duty trucking electrification momentum

The electrification of medium and heavy-duty trucking stands at a pivotal inflection point, with a projected 42% compound annual growth rate over the next decade. This transformation represents one of the most significant shifts in commercial transportation, driven by compelling economics, technological innovation, and strategic infrastructure deployment that will fundamentally reshape freight logistics across America. 

In Watts under the hood: The road to medium and heavy-duty trucking electrification, we explore the charging infrastructure required to support this transition, the key challenges the industry must overcome to adopt the technology, and the anticipated evolution of trucking trends in the United States. 

Low-mileage trucking will be first to electrify 

The electrification journey will unfold in distinct phases, with low-mileage commercial vehicles pioneering the transition. By 2035, 15% of short-haul trucking by weight will be electric, expanding dramatically to 52% by 2050. This rapid adoption will primarily be driven by superior economics for fleet operators with existing depots and access to industrial electricity rate structures.  

The infrastructure requirements to support this transformation are substantial yet achievable. By 2035, the medium and heavy-duty battery electric truck segment will require approximately 57,000 DC fast charging ports and 141,000 AC Level 2 ports nationwide. This infrastructure buildout represents a $4.6 billion investment opportunity over the next decade, concentrated primarily in urban areas and major freight corridors where demand will be highest. 

Megawatt charging infrastructure will enable long-distance route electrification 

The long-distance trucking segment presents unique challenges and opportunities that will reshape interstate freight transportation. By 2040, this sector will require over 12,000 specialized megawatt-level charging ports to support the growing fleet of high-mileage electric trucks.  

The infrastructure deployment will follow distinct geographic patterns. West Coast states will electrify at scale first, primarily along Interstate 5, with 41% of all of California’s long-distance charging infrastructure serving this route alone. The Eastern Seaboard, Midwest, and Texas will follow suit with more evenly distributed charger deployments serving a higher quantity of routings. 

Charging architecture and business models will evolve over time 

Behind-the-fence depot charging is emerging as the dominant strategy for electric fleet operators, offering the most cost-effective approach for vehicles that return to base daily. However, public charging infrastructure will also play an increasingly critical role, particularly following a buildout of direct medium voltage DC charging stations. This innovative technology will offer up to 82% lower costs per mile compared to diesel by bypassing traditional transformer and switchgear requirements, accessing wholesale-tier electricity pricing, and improving overall system efficiency. 

Where large grid connections are not feasible, fleet operators will implement solutions combining battery energy storage systems and solar generation with next-generation charging technology. Such modularity and integration in charging station design will enable electric truck adoption even in locations with limited utility power availability, while minimizing peak demand charges through intelligent load management and energy optimization. 

Electric trucks achieve cost competitiveness with diesel vehicles at different timeframes 

Our total cost of ownership analysis reveals compelling economics for electric trucks across all segments, though the timeline to cost parity varies significantly by application. High-mileage Class 8 electric trucks achieve cost competitiveness with diesel vehicles after just four years of operation, with total costs 13% lower than diesel equivalents by the tenth year of ownership. This advantage stems primarily from substantial energy cost savings available to fleets with access to wholesale electricity rates and specialized charging infrastructure. 

Low-mileage battery electric trucks follow a different economic trajectory, achieving cost parity with diesel equivalents by the tenth year of ownership. Their economic advantage is driven by accumulated energy savings over time rather than immediate operational benefits, making them particularly attractive for fleet operators with predictable routing patterns and established charging infrastructure. 

The economic case becomes even more compelling when considering the potential for autonomous electric trucks, which could cover at least twice the daily mileage of conventional trucks while eliminating driver-related costs. Although still in early development phases, autonomous technology could significantly accelerate adoption timelines and enhance the economic advantages of electrification across all trucking segments. 

Learn more 

The full Wood Mackenzie report provides detailed analysis of these trends, including comprehensive data on regional infrastructure deployment patterns, forward-looking scenarios for segment energy demand needs, and total cost of ownership analyses across various fleet models and use cases. 

Plus, learn more about our Grid Edge Data Hub; the tool which aggregates data from thousands of primary sources to empower users to investigate technology deployment and adoption trends.

And for even more insights into the EV landscape, Lens Metals & Mining gives you a sharpened view on the entire battery materials ecosystem - not just mines, but smelters, refiners, and the flow of critical minerals from source to end use. By mapping asset-to-asset material flows and blending technical, economic, geopolitical, and environmental data, the platform helps you peer into the battery supply chain powering the EV and grid transition.