The parallel metals universe: what if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed?

Since the onset of the conflict, expectations of a short, two‑month disruption followed by a swift return to normal conditions have clearly not materialised. Despite this, markets have remained relatively sanguine, continuing to price in a contained and temporary shock.

However, as uncertainties persist and timelines stretch, it has become increasingly difficult to identify a clear endgame. In response, our latest analysis reframes the outlook through three distinct pathways, first introduced in our report “Strait Talking: Iran War Scenarios for Energy Markets.”

Three Possible Paths Forward

1.Quick Peace

A rapid de-escalation scenario where elevated stockpiles and agile supply chain responses enable markets to rebalance smoothly. Disruption remains short-lived, with minimal friction and negligible long-term impact on global GDP.

2. Summer Settlement

A diplomatic resolution achieved over July or August, allowing the Strait of Hormuz to reopen by September. This pathway assumes a gradual normalisation, with supply chains rebuilding toward business-as-usual over subsequent months.

3. Extended Disruption

A prolonged stalemate in which no agreement is reached, leaving the Strait effectively closed through the end of 2026. This scenario introduces a structural shift in metals and energy markets, creating sustained fragmentation and a “parallel” pricing universe.

Understanding these scenarios is critical for navigating an increasingly bifurcated market landscape. Fill in the form above to access analysis around:

• Copper under pressure
• A split global demand story
• Energy reshaping metals markets
• AI and electrification at risk
• The shift to substitution