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Demand across most commodities in China is expected to slow down in the second half of 2021, according to Wood Mackenzie’s new monthly China Economic Focus report.
Another commodities supercycle is on the horizon, but it will be different from any that have come before. Fossil fuels won’t be in the vanguard and the winners will be the industrial metals needed to electrify society - cobalt, lithium, copper, nickel, and aluminium.
The EU Commission proposed a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) as part of today’s “Fit for 55” package. James Whiteside, global head of multi-commodity research at Wood Mackenzie, said: “As the first mechanism of its kind, the CBAM is being designed in consultation with industry to avoid unintended consequences. “A CBAM that does not cover a substantial portion of the production chain will encourage carbon leakage - pushing emissions beyond the borders of the EU or shifting competition between EU and non-EU producers to the next stage of the value chain.”
European steelmaker ArcelorMittal today announced plans to become the world’s first steelmaker to produce fossil-free steel using virgin iron. ArcelorMittal, the world’s second largest steelmaker and Europe’s largest producer, plans to produce fossil-free steel via a process known as H-DRI-EAF.
Wood Mackenzie is pleased to announce its acquisition of Roskill, a privately-owned company and leader in metals and materials supply chain intelligence.
China’s state planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced today an “indefinite suspension of all activities under China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue”. Wood Mackenzie experts weigh in on the event.
China’s march towards carbon neutrality is forcing its aluminium smelters away from using captive coal-fired power, says Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie’s latest report reveals that China’s march towards carbon neutrality by 2060 can complement both energy security and economic goals.
What’s driving demand for tin? And could a lack of ESG-compliant supply affect the pace of the energy transition?
Will falling costs secure solar’s dominance in power? Can Europe slash its emissions by 2030? Will China win the clean energy race? What would an accelerated energy transition mean for oil and gas prices? Find out in our Horizons recap.
With China buying around a third of everything Australia exports on a value basis, the downward spiral in Sino-Australian diplomatic relations is clearly of concern.
With ever more bullish price forecasts, copper is flying high – but is enough attention being paid to the risk of substitution associated with such high prices? Julian Kettle, Senior Vice President, Vice Chair Metals and Mining, argues that the threat from aluminium as a viable energy transmission alternative is being vastly underestimated.
Aluminium is both a major contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and one of the key energy transition metals needed to build a low-carbon future. Julian Kettle, Senior Vice President, Vice Chair Metals and Mining, asks: can initiatives to cut aluminium’s carbon intensity offset the impact of increasing production?
The Inga hydropower scheme in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) could be the key to the green electrification of Africa. But could the project also be a catalyst for the development of vast underutilised resources, creating a centre for low carbon metals production?
Carbon taxes could well provide the economic incentive needed to deliver rapid decarbonisation of the global economy. But what impact will they have on marginal costs and prices for mined commodities? And how does the competitive position of each commodity change under different carbon tax scenarios?
Decarbonisation targets are ramping up, but are the incentives and penalties around carbon emissions really sufficient to put the world on a 2 °C pathway this side of 2030?
There is no doubt COP26 will target further reductions in coal use. But not all coal is created equal. Thermal coal will be the main target of policies that aim to keep warming to 1.5 oC or lower.
The energy transition starts and ends with metals, so why isn’t ensuring supply high on the agenda?
Transportation accounts for 23% of global emissions, so it’s unsurprising that decarbonising the sector is one of the four key pillars of COP26. Dramatically accelerated electric vehicle (EV) uptake is needed to put the world on a 2° C trajectory. Yet there is a very big battery shaped barrier to rapid electrification
Constraints on delivering the metals for an accelerated energy transition exist at every level, from insufficient investment to a growing shortage of mining engineering graduates. Julian Kettle, Vice Chair, Metals and Mining, looks at some basic principles behind tackling a complex challenge.
If the world pursues a 2 °C decarbonisation pathway, a supercycle could exist across a broad spectrum of mined commodities. But how will it happen, if at all?
Get complimentary reports from our 2022 Outlook series, including: aluminium, copper, battery raw materials, nickel, rare earths, coal and more.
Slower demand growth, an increase in supply and rising inflation. Will these hinder investment and remove any remaining doubt about a supercycle?
China just re-wrote the global energy record book. Driven by the country’s surging economic growth, 2021 saw China record the largest ever absolute annual increase in electricity demand by any country in history.
Developing alternatives to Russian natural resources will require vast quantities of metals – but how quickly can the metals supply chain respond?
Key energy transition industries are reliant on rare earth elements to meet efficiency and emissions targets
In 2021 our global analysts created an outstanding body of research, putting a unique angle on everything from Covid-19 and COP26 through the recovery of commodity markets and rising geopolitical risk.
To unlock investment capital it may be time to give metals more credit as key enablers of the energy transition.
Accelerating electric vehicle sales continue to dominate battery raw material demand – while stationary energy storage applications are growing fast.
There is concern that the metals industry cannot deliver the supply required to achieve the Paris accord decarbonisation targets. Could an economic slowdown provide the breathing space that the industry needs?
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