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All-in front-of-the-meter (FTM) battery storage system costs in Asia Pacific markets could decline by more than 30% by 2025, says Wood Mackenzie.
Scrap metals demand growth is expected to outpace primary metals over the next two decades. However, it will remain underutilised compared to its overall availability, says Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie’s latest report shows that global lithium-ion cell manufacturing capacity pipeline could rise fourfold to reach 1.3 terawatt-hour (TWh) in 2030 compared to 2019.
Prior to the coronavirus outbreak, peak gold supply was becoming a real possibility. Now, with exploration programmes paused or cancelled and project disruptions hampering production, the summit is in sight.
Nickel in sulphate production is expected to rise from 211 kilo-tonnes (Kt) in 2019 to its peak at 450 Kt in 2027, while demand driven by the electric vehicle (EV) sector continues to accelerate, reaching approximately 800 Kt by 2035, says Wood Mackenzie.
South Korea's hot metal production will decline by 4.2 Mt or almost 10% in 2020. There is of course a risk that production decline would be greater, if containment of the virus is unsuccessful.
Rio Tinto has announced it will spend $1bn to reach net zero emissions by 2050
2020 will see lead transition into a market surplus after several years of significant deficit, according to Wood Mackenzie.
Potential supply disruptions in the Gulf and West Africa are key to the outlook for aluminium in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie.
The most important driver of the zinc market in 2020 will be the performance of the world’s zinc smelting industry, according to Wood Mackenzie.
All eyes will be on the Indonesian nickel market in 2020. The knives may be out for the country’s nascent stainless industry but the staggering potential for expansion in NPI may reduce the impact of the nickel ore export ban to a minor inconvenience. Although the global battery sector share of nickel demand is much smaller than other metals, getting the quantity of nickel that EVs will need by the mid-2020s will remain a challenge.
Gold is poised to perform strongly in 2020, with geopolitical risk set to remain elevated, according to Wood Mackenzie.
As we look to 2020, copper is faced with a finely balanced market. For now, positive investor sentiment around copper’s fundamentals is supporting higher prices.
Chinese steel demand will likely peak this year at 890 million tonnes, a growth of 1.5%, according to Wood Mackenzie. With China responsible for half of global steel demand, Chinese government policy remains core to Wood Mackenzie’s view.
Slower demand growth (especially in China) and a decent recovery in seaborne supply will continue to feature prominently in the iron ore industry in 2020. Prices will fall, with annual average price forecast for 2020 at $80/t.
The U.S has increased tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods to 25%, from 10%, impacting a number of metals. Commentary below comes from the Wood Mackenzie metals team:
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