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China's introduction of the '2+26' cities policy earlier this year calls for restricted use of coal for both residential heating and industrial purposes. This has significant ramifications for the Chinese winter season where demand is traditionally high. As an alternative to coal, gas demand could rise by 23 bcm this year compared to previous winters. Facing the most severe shortages is northern China, particularly Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei (abbreviated as BTH), where demand is highly seasonal. This region will make up half or 10 bcm of the incremental winter gas demand in 2017.
The Trump administration has been championing US energy exports as its preferred instrument for narrowing its trade deficit in the wake of the US shale boom. A combination of rising export capacity in the US, LNG import demand growth in China, and political cheerleading has underpinned an uptick in LNG exports to China this year via third party, spot trades. Will Trump's trip to Beijing seal the deal for some major LNG deals?
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