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Large oil and gas reserves in the Middle East have resulted in especially low domestic energy prices and provide little incentive to transition to low carbon alternatives, according to Wood Mackenzie’s Middle East Energy Transition Outlook report.
Tense negotiations and rumours of a rift between Saudi Arabia and UAE ended with a compromise deal for OPEC+ on 3 December 2020. Despite concerns on oversupply for Q1 2021, the group agreed to increase output by 500,000 b/d in January. Production restraint is set at minus 7.2 million b/d instead of the Q4 2020 level of minus 7.7 million b/d.
OPEC held its scheduled bi-annual meeting virtually on 30 November 2020. Though the group was unable to reach an agreement at that meeting, up for discussion is whether the production restraint would be eased starting 1 January 2021.
Looking at the May OSPs, it is clear that Saudi Arabia wants to ensure its crude remains very competitive in Asia.
The OPEC oil producers' group and its non-OPEC allies are poised to deepen its production cuts by 1.5 million barrels per day as the coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak eats into global oil demand.
Saudi Aramco’s decision to issue a $10 billion bond underscores how serious the company is about transforming itself into an international powerhouse across the oil and gas value chain, from upstream to petrochemicals.
Global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie sees OPEC maintaining its role as a key oil supplier through to 2040, although output from non-OPEC producers will help ensure adequate supply in the years to 2030.
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