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Despite fears that Europe may face a gas crunch following the cancellation of Nord Stream 2, analysts at global energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk business (Nasdaq: VRSK) say Europe is currently in a better situation than it was at the start of the 2021/22 winter.
On 23 November, US President Biden announced the release of 50 million barrels (mbbl) of crude oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
Following the conclusion of the COP26 on November 13, Wood Mackenzie experts weigh in on the key developments of the conference.
China begins the sale of its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) today. According to Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk business (Nasdaq:VRSK), the SPR auction is unlikely to have material impact on crude oil markets globally.
UK gas production is down 28% year-to-date, helping fuel the current European gas price rally, global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk business (Nasdaq: VRSK) said.
Demand across most commodities in China is expected to slow down in the second half of 2021, according to Wood Mackenzie’s new monthly China Economic Focus report.
Last week, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) released a draft of its upcoming 6th Strategic Energy Plan which included major changes to the FY2030 power generation mix targets.
The EU Commission proposed a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) as part of today’s “Fit for 55” package. James Whiteside, global head of multi-commodity research at Wood Mackenzie, said: “As the first mechanism of its kind, the CBAM is being designed in consultation with industry to avoid unintended consequences. “A CBAM that does not cover a substantial portion of the production chain will encourage carbon leakage - pushing emissions beyond the borders of the EU or shifting competition between EU and non-EU producers to the next stage of the value chain.”
Speaking after the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) was passed by the Nigerian National Assembly on 1 July, Mansur Mohammed, head of West Africa content on Wood Mackenzie’s sub-Saharan Africa upstream research team, said: “The Senate and House each passed different versions of the bill, which will now require reconciliation before it is sent to the president for assent into law. So there is still outstanding work to do before the PIB becomes law, but we see momentum behind the bill.”
As OPEC+ meets on 1 July, oil prices are supported by tightening oil market fundamentals for the second half of 2021. Global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie forecasts total oil demand to rise 5.9 million barrels per day (b/d) year-on-year for 2021.
Wood Mackenzie experts discussed key drivers of Asia Pacific gas markets at the Northeast Asia Gas Forum today.
The 2.5 million barrels per day (b/d) Colonial Pipeline moves roughly 45% of the US East Coast's supply of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from the Gulf Coast. The duration of the outage following the cyberattack on 7 May 2021 is uncertain. In the short term, Wood Mackenzie expects fuel demand and prices to rise in PADD 1, prompting refined fuel inventories to decline and PADD 1 refiners to maximize production.
Santos has sanctioned the Barossa project, which extends the life of Darwin LNG (DLNG) beyond 2040.
The latest acquisitions by NEO Energy and Waldorf Production continue what has been blockbuster start to the year for UK M&A with buyers and sellers buoyed by the recent recovery in prices. Just over two months into 2021 and UK disclosed deal spend has reached US$2.7 billion, almost equalling last year’s total, making it one of the hottest markets globally.
OPEC+ took the market by surprise when it decided to roll over its quota, saying that rather than anticipate a demand recovery, the group would wait to see it actually recover. The market was expecting a substantial increase in production because a tightening in the supply and demand balance is already evident.
Qatar Petroleum announced that it has taken final investment decision (FID) on the North Field East project.
As Biden’s inauguration approaches, Wood Mackenzie experts share how his administration could impact trade, climate change goals, and changes to the energy sector in Asia Pacific.
Spot prices of trucked LNG in China were highly volatile last month.
Tense negotiations and rumours of a rift between Saudi Arabia and UAE ended with a compromise deal for OPEC+ on 3 December 2020. Despite concerns on oversupply for Q1 2021, the group agreed to increase output by 500,000 b/d in January. Production restraint is set at minus 7.2 million b/d instead of the Q4 2020 level of minus 7.7 million b/d.
OPEC held its scheduled bi-annual meeting virtually on 30 November 2020. Though the group was unable to reach an agreement at that meeting, up for discussion is whether the production restraint would be eased starting 1 January 2021.
On 22 September, China announced its ambition to be carbon-neutral by 2060. Wood Mackenzie experts weigh in on what this means.
A gas discovery of the scale of the Tuna-1 find in the Black Sea, if developed, would be transformational for Turkey, given its overwhelming reliance on imports and crippling energy import bill. Turkey is chiefly reliant on piped gas from Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran but the share of liquefied natural gas imports has also continued to grow.
With the cancellation of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP) on 5 July, the project becomes the northeast US’ infrastructure market’s third high-profile victim in the last six months. Dominion and Duke Energy’s decision to pull the plug on ACP comes after the cancellation of the Constitution Pipeline in February and state water permit denial effectively scuppering the Northeast Supply Enhancement project in May.
Speaking after BP announced it was writing down as much as $17.5 billion when it reports its second quarter results, Luke Parker, vice president, corporate analysis, said: “The impairment shouldn’t come as a big surprise, but the implications – near-term and long-term – are significant.”
OPEC+ today (6 June 2020) agreed a one-month extension of the 9.7 million barrels per day (b/d) production cut. The extension will tighten the market further and could see Brent prices rise from the current $40/bbl toward $45-to-$50/bbl.
Commenting after Shell announced its intention to become net-zero company by 2050, Luke Parker, vice president, corporate analysis, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “This is an evolution of the net carbon footprint ambition that Shell unveiled in November 2017.
Since OPEC+’s failure to agree on production restraint on 5-6 March, the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic have become far clearer, sparking a crisis in the oil market as prices fell and supply ramped up. The problem for these producers is the scale of the fall in oil demand, especially during April and forecast for Q2 2020. No matter the size of the varying forecasts, they all point to a challenging market that puts pressure on storage space and prices.
The oil price crash has hit the upstream sector hard. Deep cuts are being made across the board, but it will have a dramatic impact on the industry’s project pipeline. Global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie believes almost all pre-FID projects will be deferred. Of the 50+ projects we identified with potential to go ahead this year, only 10 have a chance of proceeding, but all are at risk.
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
The North Sea has weathered several storms in its 50-year existence. But the events of the past few weeks mean the sector is entering uncharted waters. The coronavirus pandemic and collapse in OPEC+ production restraint has seen Brent reach its lowest point since 2003.
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