wn1sdwk000IN4
Sign-in to our platforms to access our extensive research, our latest insight, data and analytics and to connect to our industry experts.
Scrap metals demand growth is expected to outpace primary metals over the next two decades. However, it will remain underutilised compared to its overall availability, says Wood Mackenzie.
More than $1 trillion of investment will be needed in key energy transition metals - aluminium, cobalt, copper, nickel and lithium - over the next 15 years just to meet the growing demands of decarbonisation, according to Wood Mackenzie. This is almost double the figure invested over the previous 15 years.
According to Wood Mackenzie's Accelerated Energy Transition (AET) scenario, which sees global warming limited to 2.5 degrees (Celsius), the battery raw materials supply chain requires much more investment by 2030.
Wood Mackenzie’s latest report shows that global lithium-ion cell manufacturing capacity pipeline could rise fourfold to reach 1.3 terawatt-hour (TWh) in 2030 compared to 2019.
Global emissions must reach net-zero by the second half of the century to keep global temperature rises below 2°C. Emissions from metals production will need to halve over the next 20 years in order to hit this target, according to Wood Mackenzie.
Prior to the coronavirus outbreak, peak gold supply was becoming a real possibility. Now, with exploration programmes paused or cancelled and project disruptions hampering production, the summit is in sight.
Nickel in sulphate production is expected to rise from 211 kilo-tonnes (Kt) in 2019 to its peak at 450 Kt in 2027, while demand driven by the electric vehicle (EV) sector continues to accelerate, reaching approximately 800 Kt by 2035, says Wood Mackenzie.
2020 will see lead transition into a market surplus after several years of significant deficit, according to Wood Mackenzie.
Potential supply disruptions in the Gulf and West Africa are key to the outlook for aluminium in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie.
The most important driver of the zinc market in 2020 will be the performance of the world’s zinc smelting industry, according to Wood Mackenzie.
All eyes will be on the Indonesian nickel market in 2020. The knives may be out for the country’s nascent stainless industry but the staggering potential for expansion in NPI may reduce the impact of the nickel ore export ban to a minor inconvenience. Although the global battery sector share of nickel demand is much smaller than other metals, getting the quantity of nickel that EVs will need by the mid-2020s will remain a challenge.
Gold is poised to perform strongly in 2020, with geopolitical risk set to remain elevated, according to Wood Mackenzie.
As we look to 2020, copper is faced with a finely balanced market. For now, positive investor sentiment around copper’s fundamentals is supporting higher prices.
Chinese steel demand will likely peak this year at 890 million tonnes, a growth of 1.5%, according to Wood Mackenzie. With China responsible for half of global steel demand, Chinese government policy remains core to Wood Mackenzie’s view.
Slower demand growth (especially in China) and a decent recovery in seaborne supply will continue to feature prominently in the iron ore industry in 2020. Prices will fall, with annual average price forecast for 2020 at $80/t.
Chinese president Xi Jinping’s mantra that “houses should be for living in, not for speculation” has been used to allude to the government’s policy to curb rising property prices for the past couple of years. Despite the cooling measures, steel demand in the property sector has shown resilience.
Over 650 GW of new onshore and 130 GW of new offshore wind capacity will be installed between 2018 and 2028. This will consume in excess of 5.5Mt of copper, according to a recent analysis by Wood Mackenzie.
Shockwaves from Tsingshan's new stainless steel hub in Indonesia are reverberating across South East Asia and beyond, according to Wood Mackenzie
Under heavy subsidies from the government, China's electric vehicles (EV) market has grown exponentially to overtake the United States as the world's largest EV market. However with subsidies fading out in two years' time, the Chinese government and EV manufacturers are pressed for time to sustain the growth momentum in EVs. Wood Mackenzie's latest research reveals that China's proposed dual-credit scheme can reshape the EV market for a more sustainable development beyond the abolishment of subsidies in 2020. The EV penetration rate is projected to hit 17% in 2035 as a result.
Viewing page 2 of 2