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The liquefied natural gas (LNG) boom is back. Over the next two years, almost 90 million tonnes per annum (mmtpa) of LNG is expected to take final investment decision (FID) and start construction. New research from Wood Mackenzie show that capital expenditure - for both LNG plant and upstream infrastructure - will total more than US$200 billion between 2019 and 2025. This will provide a major boost to engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors and other providers along the supply chain.
ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum’s announcement that they will proceed with development of the Golden Pass liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project at Sabine Pass, Texas, kicks off what could be a record year for LNG final investment decisions (FIDs). The go-ahead for Golden Pass LNG comes as Anadarko and its partners in Mozambique LNG (Area 1) took a major step towards FID after signing sales and purchase agreements (SPAs) with CNOOC, Tokyo Gas-Centrica and Shell. ExxonMobil (30%) and Qatar Petroleum (70%) said construction at Golden Pass will begin in the first quarter of this year, with start-up scheduled for 2024.
Despite its small share of the total liquefied natural gas market, floating LNG (FLNG) has generated outsized interest in recent years. In a world requiring tight capital discipline, FLNG offers lower capital investment and manageable costs, particularly in frontier regions.
In a newly published report, Wood Mackenzie notes that the deepwater industry appears in good health, following a sustained cost reduction through the downturn. However this hard work is in danger of being undone, as impending cyclical cost inflation could raise break-even costs once again.
In the 12 months up until June 2018, China was the second largest buyer of US LNG, accounting for approximately 3 mmtpa of US LNG, with Shell being the largest seller. However as the US-China trade dispute escalated, Chinese buyers have gradually reduced purchases of US LNG.
Today China announced retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of American imports, in response to the Trump administration's latest trade threats. The list included a 25% tariff on LNG.
What does the EU's agreement to buy US LNG - announced after a meeting between European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and US President Donald Trump - mean for producers and consumers?
Following China's imposition of retaliatory tariffs on US goods over the weekend, our experts weigh in on the potential impact the move will have on different commodities.
Wood Mackenzie estimates LNG trucking capacity in China to double to 38 million tonnes (mt) by 2025. China is the world's largest LNG trucking market. In 2017, 19 mt of LNG was transported via tanker truck from domestic liquefaction plants and LNG import terminals to downstream markets. This volume accounts for 12% of total gas consumption.
Wood Mackenzie's short-term global gas and LNG outlook (Q2 2018) sees the market rebalancing as it moves from oversupply, although the global natural resources consultancy believes prices will remain relatively sustained into 2019.
As previously forecasted by Wood Mackenzie, 2017 saw a significant recovery in upstream FIDs, with the number of project sanctions more than doubled compared to 2016. Wood Mackenzie expects a similar total this year - circa 30 major project FIDs - supported by continued prudence in industry spending.
The Trump administration has been championing US energy exports as its preferred instrument for narrowing its trade deficit in the wake of the US shale boom. A combination of rising export capacity in the US, LNG import demand growth in China, and political cheerleading has underpinned an uptick in LNG exports to China this year via third party, spot trades. Will Trump's trip to Beijing seal the deal for some major LNG deals?
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