Energy transition outlook: country pledges scenario
Achieving global net zero by 2060
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Energy transition outlook: country pledges scenario
Achieving global net zero by 2060
Trajectory
Trajectory
Global net zero arrives by 2060 and the world manages to limit the average surface temperature increase to under 2 ˚C, assuming the emissions reductions achieved to 2060 are sustained and pursued in the subsequent decades.
Outlook
Outlook
In this scenario, net zero pledges announced at COP28 are achieved, albeit with a slightly delayed start due to near-term challenges amid high energy prices.
Key features of this scenario
Announced net zero pledges are implemented, albeit slightly delayed due to near-term challenges amid high energy prices. Incentive-based policies drive competition, and the race to technology advancement and innovation are key features in this scenario.
A combination of higher carbon prices and faster cost declines erode the competitiveness of fossil fuels, resulting in higher demand and improved profitability for low-carbon energy sources.
Countries adapt to the prevailing uncertain world and reset to double down on the energy transition, setting ambitious nationally determined contributions (NDCs) ahead of COP30 in 2025. Interim targets – 2030 emissions reduction – are not met but longer-term pledges remain intact and are achieved on time and in full.
Emissions
Globally, net emissions peak in 2025 and reach 9.85 Bt CO2e by 2050.
Investment
Achieving this scenario requires capex spend of US$65 trillion between 2024 and 2050. Upstream comprises 14% of this, compared to power and renewables at 69%.
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Our energy transition outlook executive summary includes more detail on these themes, plus a selection of charts on fossil fuels demand outlook, power demand, critical minerals demand, solar and wind trajectories and more. Fill in the form at the top of the page for your complimentary copy.
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