Energy transition outlook: delayed transition scenario
A delayed energy transition scenario caused by geopolitical risks, trade tensions and policy inertia
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Energy transition outlook: delayed transition scenario
A delayed energy transition scenario caused by geopolitical risks, trade tensions and policy inertia
Trajectory
Trajectory
Geopolitics and reduced policy support for new technologies lead to a five-year delay to global decarbonisation efforts.
Outlook
Outlook
The world fails to meet the most ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement. This scenario corresponds to approximately a 3 ˚C pathway.
Key features
A cascade of geopolitical crises continues to fragment the global trade. Governments choose protectionism and domestic supply security over global cooperation and sustainability, driving up the cost of alternative energies and delaying the transition.
Stark geographic differences appear in this scenario. Countries don’t shy away from attempting to out-manoeuvre others and promote self-interests.
Fossil fuels continue to dominate the energy system.
Hydrogen projects are delayed due to slow financing and lack of guaranteed uptake. EV sales slow amidst consumer backlash and high prices, reaching just 44% global share by 2050.
Emissions
Globally, net emissions peak in 2030 and reach 27.33 Bt CO2e by 2050.
Investment
Achieving this scenario requires capex spend of US$52 trillion between 2024 and 2050. Upstream comprises 34% of this, compared to power and renewables at 53%.
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Our energy transition outlook executive summary includes more detail on these themes, plus a selection of charts on fossil fuels demand outlook, power demand, critical minerals demand, solar and wind trajectories and more. Fill in the form at the top of the page for your complimentary copy.
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