Energy transition outlook: Country pledges scenario 2026-27 update
Our view of how countries' existing emissions targets are achieved.
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Trajectory
Trajectory
Stronger policy ambition, sustained clean-energy investment and greater electrification drive a faster shift away from fossil fuels.
Outlook
Outlook
Governments deliver their announced long-term emissions targets, accelerating clean-energy deployment and putting oil, gas and coal into structural decline on a pathway corresponding to approximately 2 °C of warming.
Country pledges scenario: what happens if countries deliver on their announced long-term climate targets?
Our country pledges scenario explores a future in which governments achieve their announced long-term emissions targets.
Energy-demand growth moderates as electrification, efficiency improvements and behavioural changes reshape consumption.
Renewables become the backbone of new power supply, supported by greater investment in grids, storage and interconnection. At the same time, oil, natural gas and coal move into structural decline.
The result is a pathway corresponding to approximately 2 °C of warming.
What defines the country pledges scenario?
Policy ambition strengthens
Governments take more decisive action to deliver existing climate commitments, with stronger carbon pricing, efficiency measures and clearer pathways for reducing fossil-fuel use.
Capital becomes more consistent
Greater policy certainty supports more sustained investment in clean power, grids, storage, electric vehicles and other low-carbon technologies.
Renewables become the backbone of new supply
Clean electricity expands rapidly, supported by the infrastructure and flexibility required to integrate growing renewable generation.
Electrification accelerates
Transport, buildings and industry increasingly shift towards electricity, changing both the level and composition of global energy demand.
Fossil fuels enter structural decline
Oil, gas and coal all decline more quickly than in the Base Case as efficiency, electrification and cleaner alternatives reshape consumption.
Frequently asked questions
The principal difference is the strength and consistency of action.
In our base case, clean-energy technologies grow strongly, but policy, infrastructure and investment do not move quickly enough to displace fossil fuels at the same pace.
Country pledges assumes governments follow through on their announced long-term commitments.
That strengthens investment signals, accelerates electrification and makes clean power an increasingly dominant part of the energy system.
Electricity takes a much larger share of global end-use demand as transport, buildings and industry electrify.
Renewables underpin most new generation, while grids, storage and other sources of flexible or firm power grow alongside them.
For fossil fuels, the direction is reversed. Oil peaks earlier than in our Base Case, gas turns down sooner and coal declines much more sharply as the energy system transitions towards lower-carbon alternatives.
The result is a faster transition than our Base Case, while remaining less demanding than the transformation required under Net Zero.
See the bigger picture
Compare Energy Security with our four other pathways.
Growth first
Economic growth and affordability take priority, keeping energy demand higher for longer.
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Base case
Our assessment of the most likely outcome of the energy system based on the evolution of current policies, technologies and market trends.
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Energy security
A security-first pathway where countries prioritise greater energy independence, accelerating electrification and ultimately lowering emissions longer-term compared with our Base Case.
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Net zero
A pathway based on the most ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement, requiring extraordinary policy action, global cooperation, capital mobilisation and technological innovation to limit warming to around 1.5 °C by 2100, following an overshoot.
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