Energy transition outlook: country pledges scenario
Achieving global net zero by 2060
Global net zero arrives by 2060 and the world manages to limit the average surface temperature increase to under 2 ˚C, assuming the emissions reductions achieved to 2060 are sustained and pursued in the subsequent decades.
In this scenario, net zero pledges announced at COP26 are achieved, albeit with a slightly delayed start due to near-term challenges amid high energy prices
Incentive-based policies drive competition, and the race to technology advancement and innovation are key features of this scenario. Energy security and technological sovereignty are key drivers.
In this scenario the drive for energy security also involves significant use of low-carbon technologies and offers an opportunity to cut costs faster than the base case. Road transport electrification expands to emerging markets as well as heavy duty mobility and freight segment.
Oil demand remains in 90 to 100 mb/d range until 2035 and ends up with approximately 50 mb/d in 2050. Gas demand continues to increase and peaks at 4,200 bcm in 2030 and declining to around 3,000 bcm by 2050.
Developed markets lower emissions by around 35% by 2030 from 2019 levels and reach net zero by 2050. China gets on track to meet its 2060 net zero pledge. Globally, energy-related net emissions peak in 2024 and fall 9% by 2030 and nearly 75% by 2050.
In our country pledges scenario a total capex investment of US$60 trillion between 2023-50 will be required (an average annual capex of US$2.2. trillion). Power and renewables would attract 73% of this investment and upstream 14%.