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Wood Mackenzie report offers five key developments for the energy sector over the next 12 months
The US is poised to impose fresh sanctions on Venezuela, ratcheting up the stakes in the country's political crisis by curbing the Maduro government's access to cash from crude exports.
On 3 December 2018, Qatar announced it will withdraw from OPEC on 1 January 2019, putting an end to its 57-year membership of the producers’ cartel. Qatar, which said it intends to focus on its gas production, made the announcement ahead of the 6 December OPEC meeting.
The acceleration of the energy transition means gas resource holders increasingly face a choice: follow the established pathway and develop new LNG export facilities or pivot into developing blue ammonia.
Economic growth, stability in energy prices, energy transition, dual-control targets and relations with the US, are the top five themes to watch out for in China’s energy outlook this year, says Wood Mackenzie.
Tense negotiations and rumours of a rift between Saudi Arabia and UAE ended with a compromise deal for OPEC+ on 3 December 2020. Despite concerns on oversupply for Q1 2021, the group agreed to increase output by 500,000 b/d in January. Production restraint is set at minus 7.2 million b/d instead of the Q4 2020 level of minus 7.7 million b/d.
Royal Dutch Shell said on 20 June it would write off assets worth up to $22 billion on the back of weakening oil and gas demand due to the coronavirus pandemic and a weaker energy price outlook.
The oil price crash has hit the upstream sector hard. Deep cuts are being made across the board, but it will have a dramatic impact on the industry’s project pipeline. Global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie believes almost all pre-FID projects will be deferred. Of the 50+ projects we identified with potential to go ahead this year, only 10 have a chance of proceeding, but all are at risk.
After over a year of trade tensions, the US and China signed a “phase one” trade deal on 16 January. As part of the deal, China has agreed to increase the value of energy imports by US$52.4 billion above 2017 levels over the next two years. What could it mean for the oil market?
OPEC held its scheduled bi-annual meeting virtually on 30 November 2020. Though the group was unable to reach an agreement at that meeting, up for discussion is whether the production restraint would be eased starting 1 January 2021.
Commenting after Shell announced its intention to become net-zero company by 2050, Luke Parker, vice president, corporate analysis, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “This is an evolution of the net carbon footprint ambition that Shell unveiled in November 2017.
The coronavirus pandemic is reducing oil demand. The OPEC+ production restraint agreement fell apart on 6 March and Saudi Arabia is rapidly increasing supply. The result: Brent crude has plunged to less than US$30/bbl. This will have a significant impact on currently producing fields and future supply. How low can the price go before different sources of production become uneconomic? Where are production shut-ins most likely? Can governments influence the result?
The upstream sector could save as much as US$75 billion annually thanks to digitalisation and Big Data. In its new report, Digitalisation in upstream: Show me the money, global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie dug into the numbers to see exactly what Big Data could do for Big Oil – and smaller players too.
Shale gas in China has seen significant progress over the last decade, growing to nearly 600 wells and 9 bcm of production last year. In its latest analysis, Wood Mackenzie projects Chinese shale gas production to almost double to 17 bcm in 2020.
As previously forecasted by Wood Mackenzie, 2017 saw a significant recovery in upstream FIDs, with the number of project sanctions more than doubled compared to 2016. Wood Mackenzie expects a similar total this year - circa 30 major project FIDs - supported by continued prudence in industry spending.
Global economic growth could slow to 2.5% year-on-year in 2022 and 0.7% in 2023 due to the Russia-Ukraine war, says Wood Mackenzie.
Demand across most commodities in China is expected to slow down in the second half of 2021, according to Wood Mackenzie’s new monthly China Economic Focus report.
The EU Commission proposed a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) as part of today’s “Fit for 55” package. James Whiteside, global head of multi-commodity research at Wood Mackenzie, said: “As the first mechanism of its kind, the CBAM is being designed in consultation with industry to avoid unintended consequences. “A CBAM that does not cover a substantial portion of the production chain will encourage carbon leakage - pushing emissions beyond the borders of the EU or shifting competition between EU and non-EU producers to the next stage of the value chain.”
Asia-Pacific's oil and gas sector looks set to rebound over the next 12 months as rising demand, stronger commodity prices and an uptick in M&A activity bring greater confidence to the region. Wood Mackenzie predicts rising Asian LNG demand, the return of China's NOCs to growth mode and new appetite for upstream investment to be key factors influencing the sector, not only Asia-Pacific, but also globally into 2019.
Since the fall in oil prices in 2014, oil majors and international oil companies (IOCs) have accelerated a shift towards resource themes and regions offering higher returns, lower complexity and shorter timeframes, away from the more challenging regions such as Southeast Asia. To date, close to 800 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of the region's resources have left the hands of majors and IOCs.
The impact of the 2014 oil price collapse is still being felt across the upstream sector. Operators have cut investment, deferred projects and implemented tough cost discipline, slashing US$910 billion from global capital expenditure estimates for 2015-2020. While many operators believe the cuts will stick, a new survey released today by natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie indicates the pictured is more nuanced.
Despite concerns about underinvestment in upstream, peak oil and gas demand can be met in the 2030s without a substantial increase to current annual asset development investment levels of US$500 billion in 2023 terms, according to a new Horizons report from Wood Mackenzie.
Following the conclusion of the COP26 on November 13, Wood Mackenzie experts weigh in on the key developments of the conference.
The development of net zero hubs around the UK has proved a key plank of the country’s strategy towards achieving net zero by 2050. Scotland, which has a 2045 net-zero target, could advance its ambitions by establishing a net zero hub on the Firth of Forth, research from global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk company (Nasdaq: VRSK) has found.
If the world acts decisively to limit global warming to 2°C by 2050, the scale of change will revolutionise the energy industry. Progressive electrification will squeeze the most polluting hydrocarbons out of the energy mix, nearly eliminating their markets. Oil demand will shrink, and with it, so will the power of major oil producers. Gas demand will remain resilient, but business models will need to evolve.
At present, few countries require producers to either pay a carbon tax or participate in an emissions trading scheme (ETS). But as governments seek to meet decarbonisation targets, that could soon change. Carbon charges are likely to come, and they will transform the upstream sector, affecting both asset values and the industry’s economics.
What are the biggest emissions trends to watch this year? James Whiteside, Wood Mackenzie Global Head of Multi-Commodity Research, and Amy Bowe, Wood Mackenzie Head of Carbon Research, see five key themes
As Biden’s inauguration approaches, Wood Mackenzie experts share how his administration could impact trade, climate change goals, and changes to the energy sector in Asia Pacific.
Anglo-Dutch supermajor Shell today slashed its dividend by 66%, the first time the company has cut cash distributions to shareholders since World War II. The annual pay-out will fall from US$14.9 billion to US$5.1 billion, freeing up US$10 billion of capital.
Over the last year, strong demand recovery and a lack of investment in supply has caused prices to rise across sectors. Energy security and geopolitical tensions have added unprecedented uncertainty to markets across the globe. On top of that, countries and corporations still bear the massive challenge of limiting global warming to 1.5 ˚C.
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