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We explored how the market for EVs might develop in Part 1. This week Ed Rawle, Head of Oils Research, chats about the implications for global oil demand.
There will be just 5 million EVs on the road by the end of 2018, minuscule penetration into a global car stock of 1.2 billion cars. But with faster acceleration, longer life, fewer moving parts and less maintenance, and no tail pipe emissions EVs are going to be big – really big.
US tight oil's growth prospects are attracting the attention of any number of upstream companies. But new entrants need to go in with their eyes wide open - it's a very different business model to conventional E&P. In Part 2 of our assessment of buying into tight oil we look at the technical, logistical and valuation pitfalls.
The biggest lottery prize of 2018? A contender is the windfall oil and gas companies find drops into their bank account.
Exploration is staging a remarkable turnaround in its fortunes, with a string of big discoveries in recent months. Many of these look to be potentially commercial, a sign that the industry can still create value.
Not long ago, Egypt’s gas industry was in crisis. Production fell by a third in the three years to 2015. A top ten LNG exporter in the prior decade, the country had, by then, become a top ten importer.
How to sum up the effect on oil markets of OPEC’s strategy since 2014? Based on how the fundamentals have evolved, it's been a pretty mixed bag.
Investment is making a comeback. Much of the action, as ever, is in the US Lower 48, with operators responding to higher prices by upping 2018 budgets by 15-20%. But there’s stuff happening, too, in the big wide world beyond onshore USA.
How much new oil does the world need over the next decade? Where are the competitive plays? What are the economic breakeven prices? Our chief analyst, Simon Flowers, explores in the latest edition of The Edge.
Different markets, different cycles. Mining companies suffered for their sins in the downturn a little earlier than the oil and gas sector. Now they are emerging into a new upturn, also ahead of the game.
Delivering production growth after three years of low oil prices is an achievement, and combined with higher oil prices, was the primary factor behind good upstream earnings.
Are we in the early stages of a sustained rise in commodity prices? And what does it mean for the US dollar? We posed these questions a year ago when robust global economic growth was driving commodity demand and the US dollar was starting to tip over from a 15-year high.
A teenage growth spurt – US onshore liquids production is on a tear again. Already rebounding from the downturn for a year, right now it’s turbo-charged.
Mexico is hot – as hot as a habanero, the spiciest of Mexicano chillies. The bidding round for deep water blocks this week has attracted a who’s who of industry players, scooping up two-thirds of the blocks on offer.
What will US tight oil growth do to crude markets? The build-up in volumes early this decade led to a supply glut that undermined prices in 2014.
Obstacles to M&A have abounded these last three years. Money’s been tight, and for many companies acquisitive growth wasn’t needed after a period of heavy of investment earlier in the decade.
What are the prospects for tight oil outside the US? It's a question frequently asked on my travels, and with good reason. If US tight oil can emerge so quickly to disrupt the market, perhaps other plays out there might have the same effect.
Visiting Asia this month was an opportunity to gauge how oil and gas companies there are faring.
Why feeding the dog can undermine trust in the oil industry
Low oil prices, severe financial stretch, even moments of existential contemplation – it’s hardly been the right environment for successful business development.
US tight oil’s second phase of growth is well underway. We expect tight oil production to double from 4.7 million b/d today to around 9.5 million b/d in the mid-2020s – and our view is by no means the most bullish.
The intensifying drilling up of the Permian Basin in Texas isn’t just delivering rapid growth in tight oil. There are huge volumes of gas too, the effects of which are rippling out into the US market and may have big implications for global gas prices too.
If the demand side of the equation is relatively predictable, oil supply is notoriously difficult. Many of the market’s most colourful moments through history have revolved around supply, with OPEC at the centre of most in the last six decades.
Is the oil industry on its way to recovery? Sanctioned projects are smaller and cheaper, while US tight oil buffers the decline in conventional spend.
The biggest current recruiter in upstream? Digitalisation, by a distance. Technology is already playing a part in downstream’s recovery from its lows a few years ago.
The industry is adapting to low oil prices. But can upstream grow in this environment? The question is a profound one, the answer in reality more about sustaining the business and maximising returns rather than pursuing growth.
2017 is set to be to be the third year Brent has traded at under half the heady levels of 2014.
New thinking and new ways are needed if operators are to usher in a new era of investment in conventional projects. A dip in oil prices below US$50/bbl may be just what’s needed to concentrate minds and encourage companies to challenge industry conventions.
Andrew Latham, our Head of Exploration Research, has built a global creaming curve for conventional exploration outside the USL48. Three themes stand out.
The firmer oil price we expect can only embolden the already resurgent US tight oil industry which is on course to displace the 1 million b/d OPEC has cut within the year. Three main aspects of the decision stand out.
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