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The return of Iranian exports to the oil market in 2021 was a clear risk. If sanctions are lifted, how much oil could Iran produce and how quickly? What wiggle room would OPEC+ have to accommodate Iran's exports? What would be the effect on the oil price?
Global markets were volatile heading into the new year. Oil has been no exception, with Brent trading between $62 per barrel on 7 December 2018 before falling to $51/b on 21 December. Mixed macroeconomic data have driven much of the volatility, with political uncertainty compounding concerns of a sharper than expected economic slowdown. What's the outlook for 2019?
Our Global Upstream Update presents timely analysis of key industry topics from our regional experts situated around the world.
Higher oil and gas prices are certain as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens to disrupt 15% of global oil supply and 20% of global LNG supply, with oil prices potentially exceeding $100/bbl if tanker flows are not quickly restored, according to Wood Mackenzie. Following US and Israeli attacks on Iranian government, military and nuclear facilities, Iran warned shipping away from the waterway and insurers withdrew coverage, effectively halting tanker traffic.
On 23 November, US President Biden announced the release of 50 million barrels (mbbl) of crude oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
Our view of the year ahead, including the impact of Trump's re-election on our oil price forecast, a look at refining margins, ethylene capacity and China's overcapacity affects downstream chemicals markets.
The MENA upstream sector enters 2026 with strong momentum, abundant opportunities and rising risks that will shape investment, supply dynamics and strategic positioning across the region.
Global oil demand is due to rise by almost 2 million barrels a day (b/d) in 2024, with China accounting for over 25% of that increase according to a report by Wood Mackenzie.
Analysis of global oil cost curves indicates that many conventional pre-FID projects – even deepwater developments - are now competitive on a breakeven basis with US Lower 48 tight oil. However, this competitiveness has come at the expense of volumes. The trade-off of cost efficiency versus volumes means that in the medium- to long-term, the cost of supply is set to increase, highlighting the US Lower 48’s role as an important marginal barrel producer.
The industry needs to look beyond short-term price volatility.
Government starts pulling the levers to bolster the economy
Reports of the death of coal have been greatly exaggerated. Demand has been bouncing back this year as the world economy picks up again, and some prices have hit their highest levels for more than a decade.
Oil prices are on a roll, the 10% jump in January means Brent has tripled since the dark days of April 2020. How will the oil market develop in 2021 and can the price rise further still?
What's driven the rally, what is the outlook for supply and demand fundamentals in 2022, and how will geopolitics, including the Russia/Ukraine crisis, play out?
The 2020 collapse in oil price hasn’t just killed tight oil’s growth, it smashed volumes down in the space of just a few months. The big question is whether it will ever return to a growth path.
The global upstream fundamentals for 2019 are encouraging, despite recent price volatility. Angus Rodgers explains why in this look ahead at five big themes in upstream oil and gas in 2019.
The attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure took out over 5% of global oil supply and temporarily pushed up prices by 20%. What does the attack say about the security of oil’s supply chain?
We've had the best year for the oil and gas industry for some time: KPIs have turned positive. Brent looks set to end 2017 over US$60/bbl, up 40% from the summer lows.
After over a year of trade tensions, the US and China signed a “phase one” trade deal on 16 January. As part of the deal, China has agreed to increase the value of energy imports by US$52.4 billion above 2017 levels over the next two years. What could it mean for the oil market?
Our experts unpack the 5 key trends shaping Asia’s oil and refining markets in 2025 and what to expect in 2026
Easily understand trends in the global oil market with our informed, independent view on oil prices and their key drivers.
Global oil demand growth will rise by 1.9 million barrels a day (b/d) in 2024 with key markets in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region being the main driver, accounting for over 63% of the total according to Alan Gelder, Vice President of Oils Research at Wood Mackenzie.
Calmer waters are expected for the oils, refining and chemicals industries in 2024 – but that doesn’t mean it’s plain sailing. What are the top trends to track for the year ahead?
What opportunities, challenges and risks does the world of energy and natural resources face in 2024? Our experts share their thoughts.
Approximately 15% of ethane-based ethylene supply in the Middle East could be lost this year due to oil supply dynamics, according to new analysis from Wood Mackenzie. This equates to around 1.5 million tons of ethylene.
Although the Presidency does not officially begin until January 20th 2017, the dearth of concrete policy proposals leaves a high level of uncertainty around the priorities of a Trump administration.
As demand collapses, how will the market deal with oversupply? Find out in this week's Edge.
For the global and regional energy sector, Kazakhstan’s stability matters. What are the short- and long-term consequences of recent events?
A robust supply demand model to drive informed investments and strategic success
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