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OPEC+ took the market by surprise when it decided to roll over its quota, saying that rather than anticipate a demand recovery, the group would wait to see it actually recover. The market was expecting a substantial increase in production because a tightening in the supply and demand balance is already evident.
Qatar Petroleum announced that it has taken final investment decision (FID) on the North Field East project.
Tense negotiations and rumours of a rift between Saudi Arabia and UAE ended with a compromise deal for OPEC+ on 3 December 2020. Despite concerns on oversupply for Q1 2021, the group agreed to increase output by 500,000 b/d in January. Production restraint is set at minus 7.2 million b/d instead of the Q4 2020 level of minus 7.7 million b/d.
OPEC held its scheduled bi-annual meeting virtually on 30 November 2020. Though the group was unable to reach an agreement at that meeting, up for discussion is whether the production restraint would be eased starting 1 January 2021.
OPEC+ today (6 June 2020) agreed a one-month extension of the 9.7 million barrels per day (b/d) production cut. The extension will tighten the market further and could see Brent prices rise from the current $40/bbl toward $45-to-$50/bbl.
Since OPEC+’s failure to agree on production restraint on 5-6 March, the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic have become far clearer, sparking a crisis in the oil market as prices fell and supply ramped up. The problem for these producers is the scale of the fall in oil demand, especially during April and forecast for Q2 2020. No matter the size of the varying forecasts, they all point to a challenging market that puts pressure on storage space and prices.
The oil price crash has hit the upstream sector hard. Deep cuts are being made across the board, but it will have a dramatic impact on the industry’s project pipeline. Global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie believes almost all pre-FID projects will be deferred. Of the 50+ projects we identified with potential to go ahead this year, only 10 have a chance of proceeding, but all are at risk.
Survival mode has returned to the oil and gas sector as the oil price rout deepens. Corporate financials are in better shape than during the 2014/2015 crash, but room for manoeuvre is limited. Can companies cope with prices this low?
The announcement of an 80 trillion cubic feet (tcf) find at Jebel Ali, on the border between Abu Dhabi and Dubai, is hugely significant for the United Arab Emirates. Liam Yates, an analyst on Wood Mackenzie’s Middle East upstream team, said: “The find ranks as the largest global gas discovery since Galkynysh (South Iolotan). The Turkmen field was discovered in 2005."
After a marathon meeting, running late into the night of 5 December, the OPEC+ group has agreed to continue its current production restraint of 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d), and will add a further 0.5 million b/d of supply cuts through to March 2020.
On 25 November, Qatar Petroleum (QP) announced that it will boost output from Qatar LNG by 64% - from 77 million tonnes per annum (tpa) at present to 126 million tpa by 2027 – following a successful appraisal of the North Field’s onshore extension, near Ras Laffan Industrial City.
Saudi Aramco is to set to take a 20% stake in Reliance Industries' refining and petrochemical businesses.
French Major Total has sold its stakes in 10 UK North Sea fields to Petrogas NEO, a new joint venture between Petrogas and HitecVision, for US$635 million. The asset package includes operated and non-operated assets, which will produce 25,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) this year. The assets hold over 30 million barrels of oil equivalent in remaining reserves.
Saudi Aramco’s decision to issue a $10 billion bond underscores how serious the company is about transforming itself into an international powerhouse across the oil and gas value chain, from upstream to petrochemicals.
On 3 December 2018, Qatar announced it will withdraw from OPEC on 1 January 2019, putting an end to its 57-year membership of the producers’ cartel. Qatar, which said it intends to focus on its gas production, made the announcement ahead of the 6 December OPEC meeting.
What next for the oil market as the US reimposes sanctions on Iran?
Malaysian NOC Petronas buys a 10% interest in Oman's Khazzan development
Qatar Petroleum announces plans for a fourth LNG megatrain
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