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A five-year delay to the energy transition could see the global average temperature rise to 3°C above pre-industrial levels.
If high interest rates persist, transitioning to a net zero global economy will be even harder and more costly. The higher cost of borrowing negatively affects renewables and nascent technologies, compared to more established oil and gas, and metals and mining sectors, which remain somewhat insulated.
The Chinese economy is expected to grow by 5.5% but could grow by as much as 7% in 2023 as the country bounces back from three years of lock-down caused by the Covid pandemic according to a new report by Wood Mackenzie.
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the current energy crisis.
The Russia-Ukraine crisis has shocked the coal and the broader energy markets, with spikes in Newcastle prices observed in recent days, says Wood Mackenzie.
China’s renewables manufacturing has emerged from 2021 bigger and more competitive than ever before. Western markets are benefitting from trading with the IKEA of the energy transition, but balancing reliance on China’s technology providers with local interests is now a key political as well as environmental challenge, says Wood Mackenzie.
Trade dislocations due to sanctions, high power prices and disruption to production facilities in the conflict zone are three major threats to the metals and mining industry as result of escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, says Wood Mackenzie.
The EU Commission proposed a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) as part of today’s “Fit for 55” package. James Whiteside, global head of multi-commodity research at Wood Mackenzie, said: “As the first mechanism of its kind, the CBAM is being designed in consultation with industry to avoid unintended consequences. “A CBAM that does not cover a substantial portion of the production chain will encourage carbon leakage - pushing emissions beyond the borders of the EU or shifting competition between EU and non-EU producers to the next stage of the value chain.”
The EIB's new financing criteria will make lending to gas projects very difficult. It highlights that gas is also increasingly in the spotlight of the climate debate.
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