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The IMO is gearing up to cap sulphur emissions. Wood Mackenzie looks at the potential impact the new regulations could have on the shipping and bunker fuel sectors.
As previously forecasted by Wood Mackenzie, 2017 saw a significant recovery in upstream FIDs, with the number of project sanctions more than doubled compared to 2016. Wood Mackenzie expects a similar total this year - circa 30 major project FIDs - supported by continued prudence in industry spending.
On Wednesday, 21 March 2018, the US held its region-wide GoM Lease Sale 250, attracting 159 bids from 33 participating companies, with high bids totalling US$124.8 million. The total of high bids represents a modest increase of about US$3 million over last year's August region wide Lease Sale 249 but is still a lacklustre result.
Analysis of global oil cost curves indicates that many conventional pre-FID projects – even deepwater developments - are now competitive on a breakeven basis with US Lower 48 tight oil. However, this competitiveness has come at the expense of volumes. The trade-off of cost efficiency versus volumes means that in the medium- to long-term, the cost of supply is set to increase, highlighting the US Lower 48’s role as an important marginal barrel producer.
The impact of the 2014 oil price collapse is still being felt across the upstream sector. Operators have cut investment, deferred projects and implemented tough cost discipline, slashing US$910 billion from global capital expenditure estimates for 2015-2020. While many operators believe the cuts will stick, a new survey released today by natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie indicates the pictured is more nuanced.
2018 looks set to be a brighter year for upstream oil and gas companies
OPEC and non-OPEC producers agree to extend production curbs through 2018
The Trump administration has been championing US energy exports as its preferred instrument for narrowing its trade deficit in the wake of the US shale boom. A combination of rising export capacity in the US, LNG import demand growth in China, and political cheerleading has underpinned an uptick in LNG exports to China this year via third party, spot trades. Will Trump's trip to Beijing seal the deal for some major LNG deals?
Libya's oil production has increased steeply from August 2016’s low point of below 300,000 barrels per day (b/d) to around 850,000 b/d at present, passing the 1 million b/d barrier in July. But Wood Mackenzie believes Libya may now be reaching its near-term production limits and future growth will be gradual.
In the first half of the year, the industry has already witnessed 15 project sanctions, almost comparable to project sanctions in the whole of 2016.
To gauge the state of the sector, Wood Mackenzie asked its client base to share their thoughts on a number of key themes, and the responses were analysed to give a comprehensive view of how the sector’s key players view the future.
The deepwater industry has emerged from the downturn leaner and more competitive with US tight oil
Confidence will return to the sector in 2017, with exploration and production spend to rise by 3% to US$450 billion.
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