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The energy transition will require oil and gas for decades to come, but the supply of lower-cost, lower-carbon “advantaged” barrels remain scarce, threatening emissions targets and causing upstream providers to pivot to new strategies, according to “Scraping the Barrel” a new Horizons analysis from Wood Mackenzie.
The European Commission’s announcement that the EU is proposing a US$100 per barrel price cap on Russian oil products such as diesel, jet fuel and gasoline, and a US$45 per barrel cap on discounted products like fuel oil, would not severely impact Russian refiners according to Wood Mackenzie.
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Risk of a cold winter, uncertainty around pipeline imports and low gas inventories have set the scene across Europe for another volatile year ahead, with the potential for gas prices to soar further and energy shortages to bite.
Wood Mackenzie, releases its Global gas and LNG – 6 things to watch for in 2022 report.
Since OPEC+’s failure to agree on production restraint on 5-6 March, the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic have become far clearer, sparking a crisis in the oil market as prices fell and supply ramped up. The problem for these producers is the scale of the fall in oil demand, especially during April and forecast for Q2 2020. No matter the size of the varying forecasts, they all point to a challenging market that puts pressure on storage space and prices.
The oil price crash has hit the upstream sector hard. Deep cuts are being made across the board, but it will have a dramatic impact on the industry’s project pipeline. Global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie believes almost all pre-FID projects will be deferred. Of the 50+ projects we identified with potential to go ahead this year, only 10 have a chance of proceeding, but all are at risk.
Survival mode has returned to the oil and gas sector as the oil price rout deepens. Corporate financials are in better shape than during the 2014/2015 crash, but room for manoeuvre is limited. Can companies cope with prices this low?
As global markets reel in the wake of the oil price crash, Wood Mackenzie’ corporate analysis team believes the price collapse could be the trigger for a new phase of deep industry restructuring - one that rivals the changes seen in the late-1990s.
The OPEC+ meeting broke up without a deal, what does it mean for the markets?
The gas transit and supply contracts between Russia and Ukraine expire at 10 am on 1 January 2020 (Moscow time) – the future of Ukraine transit remains the largest uncertainty for global gas markets in 2020. Murray Douglas, director, European gas at global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie, said: “Ukraine remains the major transit route for Russian gas into Europe – over 76 billion cubic metres (cm) will be transported via Ukraine this year."
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that global oil and gas development spend needs to increase by around 20% to meet future demand growth and ensure companies sustain production next decade.
Global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie sees OPEC maintaining its role as a key oil supplier through to 2040, although output from non-OPEC producers will help ensure adequate supply in the years to 2030.
OPEC and non-OPEC producers agree to extend production curbs through 2018
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