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Potential supply disruptions in the Gulf and West Africa are key to the outlook for aluminium in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie.
The government of PNG has called-off negotiations on the development of the ExxonMobil-operated P’nyang gas field.
The most important driver of the zinc market in 2020 will be the performance of the world’s zinc smelting industry, according to Wood Mackenzie.
All eyes will be on the Indonesian nickel market in 2020. The knives may be out for the country’s nascent stainless industry but the staggering potential for expansion in NPI may reduce the impact of the nickel ore export ban to a minor inconvenience. Although the global battery sector share of nickel demand is much smaller than other metals, getting the quantity of nickel that EVs will need by the mid-2020s will remain a challenge.
Gold is poised to perform strongly in 2020, with geopolitical risk set to remain elevated, according to Wood Mackenzie.
India's 2020 energy outlook
As we look to 2020, copper is faced with a finely balanced market. For now, positive investor sentiment around copper’s fundamentals is supporting higher prices.
Chinese steel demand will likely peak this year at 890 million tonnes, a growth of 1.5%, according to Wood Mackenzie. With China responsible for half of global steel demand, Chinese government policy remains core to Wood Mackenzie’s view.
This year may prove to be a strong one for the refining sector, but 2020 has had a difficult start. Wood Mackenzie expects some turbulence this year as a number of factors come together – geopolitical risk, the impact of IMO 2020 regulations, and US tight oil production slowing, among them.
After over a year of trade tensions, the US and China signed a “phase one” trade deal on 16 January. As part of the deal, China has agreed to increase the value of energy imports by US$52.4 billion above 2017 levels over the next two years. What could it mean for the oil market?
Wood Mackenzie expects the combined capacity expansion of base olefins - ethylene, propylene and butadiene - to hit unprecedented levels of around 20 million tonnes in 2020. This represents an increase of 6% on 2019 levels.
On 19 January, China's National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced policies aimed at restricting production, sale, and use of single-use plastic products.
Slower demand growth (especially in China) and a decent recovery in seaborne supply will continue to feature prominently in the iron ore industry in 2020. Prices will fall, with annual average price forecast for 2020 at $80/t.
Wood Mackenzie's Gavin Thompson provides a commentary on the US-China Phase One trade deal
In a recently published report, Wood Mackenzie predicts the start of a downcycle in China’s petrochemical industry. A supply overhang has already hit the country’s paraxylene (PX) market, with olefins and polyolefins markets almost certain to face the same.
Volkswagen has pledged to become carbon-neutral by 2050. Included in its roadmap for reaching this target is a plan to manufacture 22 million electric vehicles by 2028. Wood Mackenzie expects the company to miss this target. However, according to Wood Mackenzie's analysis, VW will hit 14 million EVs by 2028 - making it the world's largest EV manufacturer by the end of the decade.
Wood Mackenzie has identified six themes that will impact Asia Pacific’s gas and LNG markets in 2020.
In Q3 2019, Tesla announced its plans to capture 1% of all car sales globally. With its current portfolio of luxury cars, the company is unlikely to meet that target by the end of the decade. However, if it launches an entry-level car priced at $25,000, Wood Mackenzie projects that Tesla will meet the 1% target as early as 2024.
It will be a noteworthy year for the North Sea – companies will increase production for the first time since 2017 and the outlook for both exploration and investment is looking healthy. The region will remain a global hotspot for deals as the corporate landscape continues to evolve. Crucially, the North Sea will also see major steps towards decarbonisation.
The level of uncertainty and anxiety among upstream producers and supply chain has rarely been higher. In 2020, decision-making will be more heavily influenced by sentiment surrounding the energy transition, political upheaval and trade disputes than in previous years. This adds to the ever-present risks of unexpected supply-demand imbalance, niche cost inflation or a global economic downturn. What are the biggest trends to watch in the upstream oil and gas business in 2020? Fraser McKay, head of upstream analysis at Wood Mackenzie, sees five key themes.
Chinese polyester market growth is expected to sit at just below 3% in 2020, a marked decline from the strong growth seen between 2018 and 2019. This dip in performance is mainly due to slashed growth for bottle-grade PET, according to Wood Mackenzie.
The gas transit and supply contracts between Russia and Ukraine expire at 10 am on 1 January 2020 (Moscow time) – the future of Ukraine transit remains the largest uncertainty for global gas markets in 2020. Murray Douglas, director, European gas at global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie, said: “Ukraine remains the major transit route for Russian gas into Europe – over 76 billion cubic metres (cm) will be transported via Ukraine this year."
Wood Mackenzie has identified five themes related to project sanctions, exploration, M&A, energy transition and IMO 2020 that will impact Asia Pacific’s upstream industry in 2020.
According to a new report by Wood Mackenzie, China’s wind repowering market is expected to take off from 2023. More than 21 gigawatts (GW) (cumulative capacity) of China’s wind turbine fleet is expected to be repowered over the next 10 years (2019-2028).
Project cancellations and delays connecting planned projects to the electric grid will lead the US microgrid market to contract 17% from its 2018 peak by the end of this year, according to new research from Wood Mackenzie.
Chevron has given the green light to the Anchor development in deepwater US Gulf of Mexico. This is Chevron’s first greenfield final investment decision as an operator since its sanction of Big Foot and Jack/St Malo in 2010.
Talos Energy, in its pursuit of growth in the US Gulf of Mexico, has announced a series of purchases, worth $640 million assets in the region
Ursula von den Leyen, president of the EU Commission, today (11th December 2019) presented a plan to become the first carbon-neutral continent by 2050. This political ambition will be written into the first European Climate Law within 100 days of the announcement.
2019 has been a year of successes within the recycled PET (RPET) industry.
After a marathon meeting, running late into the night of 5 December, the OPEC+ group has agreed to continue its current production restraint of 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d), and will add a further 0.5 million b/d of supply cuts through to March 2020.
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