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Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key themes – OPEC+ production, Covid-19 developments, and the energy transition.
OPEC held its scheduled bi-annual meeting virtually on 30 November 2020. Though the group was unable to reach an agreement at that meeting, up for discussion is whether the production restraint would be eased starting 1 January 2021.
OPEC+ today (6 June 2020) agreed a one-month extension of the 9.7 million barrels per day (b/d) production cut. The extension will tighten the market further and could see Brent prices rise from the current $40/bbl toward $45-to-$50/bbl.
Since OPEC+’s failure to agree on production restraint on 5-6 March, the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic have become far clearer, sparking a crisis in the oil market as prices fell and supply ramped up. The problem for these producers is the scale of the fall in oil demand, especially during April and forecast for Q2 2020. No matter the size of the varying forecasts, they all point to a challenging market that puts pressure on storage space and prices.
The oil price has been on a bull run for over a year. Fundamentals are improving with oil demand bouncing back towards pre-pandemic highs as the global economy recovers. But OPEC+ is also playing a key role in rebalancing the market after the crisis of 2020. How much further could prices go?
From the Majors to OPEC+ … and the key topics in between.
Refining capacity constraints, OPEC+ strategy and investor demands have driven up fuel prices worldwide, with little prospect of relief in the short term.
Rising gasoline prices have become an economic problem for the US, adding to concerns about inflation, and a political problem for President Joe Biden. The administration has been trying different ways to bring them down, without much success.
The numbers of new reported Covid-19 cases have been surging in Europe and the US, forcing lockdowns and putting a brake on the economy. In other news, China plans to end sales of conventional internal combustion engine cars by 2035, counting the cost of plugging old wells, and world oil and gas demand will peak around 2030, Equinor says.
As oil demand plunges, companies and governments are looking for ways to manage the market to bring it back to equilibrium. Leading oil-producing countries will hold an online meeting on Monday to try to agree a plan.
A solar slowdown, relief for OPEC+, the rise of blue hydrogen, and other trends to watch out for in the year ahead
The first Edge was published in December 2015. To mark the 300th edition, here are our top game-changers in energy markets over the last eight years.
US energy policy, geopolitics and market pressures collide — here’s what they mean for oil supply, gas prices and the future of global power
Explore the ripple effects of Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear program and how it could reshape global oil markets and geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East
The coronavirus outbreak has derailed OPEC+, thrown the oil market into turmoil and sent an already unloved sector into freefall. What are the implications?
This attack has material implications for the oil market, as a loss of 5 million barrels per day of supplies from Saudi Arabia cannot be met for long by existing inventories and the limited spare capacity of the other OPEC+ group members. A geopolitical risk premium will return to the oil price.
The North Sea has weathered several storms in its 50-year existence. But the events of the past few weeks mean the sector is entering uncharted waters. The coronavirus pandemic and collapse in OPEC+ production restraint has seen Brent reach its lowest point since 2003.
Rapidly reacting to the oil market price crash, our experts discussed the immediate drivers influencing the market today and what we expect to happen as this continues to unfold. Our Vice Chair - Americas, Ed Crooks was joined by a panel of Wood Mackenzie’s experts to discuss: Immediate repercussions of the OPEC+ group failing to reach a deal Lessons learned from previous oil price crashes - what's different this time? The Lower 48 fallout - what happens next? The Corporate response - what does it mean for the industry's biggest players
Where new oil supply to 2030 will come from and what it costs
Wood Mackenzie projects that Brent crude oil prices will average $73.00 per barrel (bbl) in 2025, according to its latest market outlook. The forecast considers various geopolitical and economic factors, including potential peace talks between Russia and the US regarding the Ukraine conflict, ongoing tariffs, and sanctions against Iran.
Brent crude oil prices are projected to average $73 per barrel in 2025, down $7 per barrel per barrel from 2024, according to Wood Mackenzie’s latest monthly oil market outlook. The $73 per barrel forecast for this year is revised down $0.40 per barrel from the early February monthly report.
2017 is set to be to be the third year Brent has traded at under half the heady levels of 2014.
May WTI futures settled at -$37.63 on April 20. Get the latest analysis from Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils.
Share price movements can be a good early indicator of changing fortunes. The oil and gas sector had a great month in September, jumping 8% and outperforming the broader global stock market by 6%. It’s more than just rotational buying.
Today’s geopolitical temperature is close to boiling point. So why haven’t oil prices leapt in response, as we’ve seen in the past?
The oil market has come to life, with prices finally delivering on our expectations for 2023. Our oil experts, Ann-Louise Hittle and Alan Gelder, join Simon Flowers to discuss where the market goes from here and what this could mean for the economy and politics.
OPEC+ output cuts hasten market tightening
What are the upstream investment strategies of big Gulf producers? And how much are they spending? Find out here. With analysis from Simon Flowers and Jessica Brewer.
Wood Mackenzie releases its Oil markets: 5 things to look for in 2022 report which discusses the uncertainties and issues impacting global demand, oil supply and refining markets this year.
The return of Iranian exports to the oil market in 2021 was a clear risk. If sanctions are lifted, how much oil could Iran produce and how quickly? What wiggle room would OPEC+ have to accommodate Iran's exports? What would be the effect on the oil price?
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