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First oil from Johan Sverdrup – Norway’s sixth-largest discovery, with reserves of around 2.7 billion barrels – is a red-letter day for the partners and the Norwegian state. The decision to sanction the development was the country's largest final investment decision in more than 30 years.
Natural resources research and consultancy Wood Mackenzie launches the world’s first Global Upstream Valuation solution, enabling organisations from the largest oil and gas companies to global banks to value assets around the globe in seconds.
Santos announced today its plans to acquire ConocoPhillips’s northern Australian portfolio. This is a logical and attractive transaction for a number of reasons.
Speaking after this morning’s PSC round, Juliana Miguez, from Wood Mackenzie’s Latin America upstream team, said: “Petrobras has returned to the headlines. One day after it dominated the Transfer of Rights Surplus round, the NOC placed the only bid of today’s auction."
The energy transition is undoubtedly impacting corporate upstream strategies in significant and disruptive ways. Coupled with the post-2014 downturn in oil prices, Wood Mackenzie sees seismic changes in the way the industry allocates capital across development, exploration and in particular M&A.
Wood Mackenzie’s latest report reveals that LNG sellers with contracts linked to JCC (Japan Crude Cocktail) could lose some US$15 billion in unearned revenues. This is a result of the IMO 2020 regulation limiting sulphur content of marine fuels to up to 0.5%, which directly affects the price of sour crudes such as those composing the JCC mix. The IMO 2020 kicks in on 1st January 2020.
OPEC+ gathers today and tomorrow to decide if the group should roll over its production restraint agreement or consider deeper cuts. The current agreement to reduce output by 1.2 million b/d runs to end March 2020. Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, said: “The idea of deeper cuts has been broached, but we consider that less likely to reach full agreement than a rollover of the standing agreement. The need for production restraint is clear. Slower US production growth is not enough to offset the ongoing imbalance between global supply and demand.”
After a marathon meeting, running late into the night of 5 December, the OPEC+ group has agreed to continue its current production restraint of 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d), and will add a further 0.5 million b/d of supply cuts through to March 2020.
It will be a noteworthy year for the North Sea – companies will increase production for the first time since 2017 and the outlook for both exploration and investment is looking healthy. The region will remain a global hotspot for deals as the corporate landscape continues to evolve. Crucially, the North Sea will also see major steps towards decarbonisation.
The OPEC+ meeting broke up without a deal, what does it mean for the markets?
As global markets reel in the wake of the oil price crash, Wood Mackenzie’ corporate analysis team believes the price collapse could be the trigger for a new phase of deep industry restructuring - one that rivals the changes seen in the late-1990s.
Today’s region-wide Gulf of Mexico Lease Sale 254 saw 84 bids received from 22 participating companies, with high bids totalling US$93 million. That amounts to roughly half of the previous lease sale, held in August 2019.
Survival mode has returned to the oil and gas sector as the oil price rout deepens. Corporate financials are in better shape than during the 2014/2015 crash, but room for manoeuvre is limited. Can companies cope with prices this low?
The North Sea has weathered several storms in its 50-year existence. But the events of the past few weeks mean the sector is entering uncharted waters. The coronavirus pandemic and collapse in OPEC+ production restraint has seen Brent reach its lowest point since 2003.
Wood Mackenzie’s latest analysis reveals that Australia’s next wave of LNG projects are likely to be delayed.
The coronavirus pandemic is reducing oil demand. The OPEC+ production restraint agreement fell apart on 6 March and Saudi Arabia is rapidly increasing supply. The result: Brent crude has plunged to less than US$30/bbl. This will have a significant impact on currently producing fields and future supply. How low can the price go before different sources of production become uneconomic? Where are production shut-ins most likely? Can governments influence the result?
Faced with the double whammy of the oil price crash and the coronavirus pandemic, Africa’s upstream sector looks set to slash capital spending by around 33% in 2020. Similar cuts to operating costs are also targeted by producers to stay cash-flow neutral. Unlike the 2015-16 price crash, this time nothing is sacrosanct: some operators will even wield the axe on committed spend, as well as the discretionary expenditure.
Since OPEC+’s failure to agree on production restraint on 5-6 March, the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic have become far clearer, sparking a crisis in the oil market as prices fell and supply ramped up. The problem for these producers is the scale of the fall in oil demand, especially during April and forecast for Q2 2020. No matter the size of the varying forecasts, they all point to a challenging market that puts pressure on storage space and prices.
Commenting after Shell announced its intention to become net-zero company by 2050, Luke Parker, vice president, corporate analysis, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “This is an evolution of the net carbon footprint ambition that Shell unveiled in November 2017.
The oil price crash has hit the US Lower 48 hard. But as exploration and production companies work to mitigate the impact of the crash on their businesses, their strategies are affecting the region’s midstream players.
OPEC+ today (6 June 2020) agreed a one-month extension of the 9.7 million barrels per day (b/d) production cut. The extension will tighten the market further and could see Brent prices rise from the current $40/bbl toward $45-to-$50/bbl.
Speaking after BP announced it was writing down as much as $17.5 billion when it reports its second quarter results, Luke Parker, vice president, corporate analysis, said: “The impairment shouldn’t come as a big surprise, but the implications – near-term and long-term – are significant.”
Chevron continuing to high-grade its portfolio and putting its 16.7% stake in the NWS up for sale makes a lot of sense.
It’s no surprise to see Shell writing down the value of its assets, in line with the new post-pandemic energy demand outlook. In fact, we’ve revised the value of oil and gas assets in Asia Pacific by US$200 billion as a result of a lower oil price outlook.
Wood Mackenzie analysts delved deeper into implications of Woodside's announced US$80 carbon price.
Chevron is set to buy Noble Energy in a US$13 billion all-stock transaction, including US$5 billion in equity. This is the first large-scale corporate acquisition of this downturn.
India’s new deepwater gas production could be under pressure from low spot LNG prices, says Wood Mackenzie.
Today’s BP strategy update marked a big step forward, filling in many of the blanks, including detailed guidance to 2030. It leaves stakeholders with a much clearer idea of where BP is headed over the next decade, how it will to get there and what that means for the value proposition.
Wood Mackenzie today delivered a comprehensive roadmap for the North Sea’s future to the OGTC, setting out the critical technologies needed to deliver an integrated net zero energy system on the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), positioning the UK as a world-leader in the move to a low carbon world.
Introducing a choice between gross split and cost recovery for new licences is a positive step forward for Indonesia's upstream sector, says Wood Mackenzie.
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