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Wood Mackenzie’s latest analysis reveals that China’s crude stock (including strategic and commercial petroleum reserves) could reach 1.15 billion barrels in 2020, equivalent to 83 days of oil demand.
As global markets reel in the wake of the oil price crash, Wood Mackenzie’ corporate analysis team believes the price collapse could be the trigger for a new phase of deep industry restructuring - one that rivals the changes seen in the late-1990s.
The OPEC+ meeting broke up without a deal, what does it mean for the markets?
The OPEC oil producers' group and its non-OPEC allies are poised to deepen its production cuts by 1.5 million barrels per day as the coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak eats into global oil demand.
This year may prove to be a strong one for the refining sector, but 2020 has had a difficult start. Wood Mackenzie expects some turbulence this year as a number of factors come together – geopolitical risk, the impact of IMO 2020 regulations, and US tight oil production slowing, among them.
Wood Mackenzie has identified six themes that will impact Asia Pacific’s gas and LNG markets in 2020.
It will be a noteworthy year for the North Sea – companies will increase production for the first time since 2017 and the outlook for both exploration and investment is looking healthy. The region will remain a global hotspot for deals as the corporate landscape continues to evolve. Crucially, the North Sea will also see major steps towards decarbonisation.
The level of uncertainty and anxiety among upstream producers and supply chain has rarely been higher. In 2020, decision-making will be more heavily influenced by sentiment surrounding the energy transition, political upheaval and trade disputes than in previous years. This adds to the ever-present risks of unexpected supply-demand imbalance, niche cost inflation or a global economic downturn. What are the biggest trends to watch in the upstream oil and gas business in 2020? Fraser McKay, head of upstream analysis at Wood Mackenzie, sees five key themes.
The gas transit and supply contracts between Russia and Ukraine expire at 10 am on 1 January 2020 (Moscow time) – the future of Ukraine transit remains the largest uncertainty for global gas markets in 2020. Murray Douglas, director, European gas at global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie, said: “Ukraine remains the major transit route for Russian gas into Europe – over 76 billion cubic metres (cm) will be transported via Ukraine this year."
Wood Mackenzie has identified five themes related to project sanctions, exploration, M&A, energy transition and IMO 2020 that will impact Asia Pacific’s upstream industry in 2020.
Chevron has given the green light to the Anchor development in deepwater US Gulf of Mexico. This is Chevron’s first greenfield final investment decision as an operator since its sanction of Big Foot and Jack/St Malo in 2010.
OPEC+ gathers today and tomorrow to decide if the group should roll over its production restraint agreement or consider deeper cuts. The current agreement to reduce output by 1.2 million b/d runs to end March 2020. Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, said: “The idea of deeper cuts has been broached, but we consider that less likely to reach full agreement than a rollover of the standing agreement. The need for production restraint is clear. Slower US production growth is not enough to offset the ongoing imbalance between global supply and demand.”
Wood Mackenzie’s latest report reveals that LNG sellers with contracts linked to JCC (Japan Crude Cocktail) could lose some US$15 billion in unearned revenues. This is a result of the IMO 2020 regulation limiting sulphur content of marine fuels to up to 0.5%, which directly affects the price of sour crudes such as those composing the JCC mix. The IMO 2020 kicks in on 1st January 2020.
In the latest Australia east coast gas market research, Wood Mackenzie projects that the LNG netback price for Australia’s east coast could bottom out to A$6.50 – A$9 per gigajoule (GJ) over the next two years.
The energy transition is undoubtedly impacting corporate upstream strategies in significant and disruptive ways. Coupled with the post-2014 downturn in oil prices, Wood Mackenzie sees seismic changes in the way the industry allocates capital across development, exploration and in particular M&A.
Natural resources research and consultancy Wood Mackenzie launches the world’s first Global Upstream Valuation solution, enabling organisations from the largest oil and gas companies to global banks to value assets around the globe in seconds.
New research from Wood Mackenzie indicates that the creation of a national pipeline company in China is a step in the right direction but will result in higher end-user prices in the short-term as the country tries to balance institutional reform with implementation risks.
Wood Mackenzie has identified the five most likely disposal candidates after ExxonMobil signalled the start of its Asia Pacific divestment programme. Together, these opportunities are worth US$5 billion, and could contribute a third of the Supermajor's global divestment target.
According to a new report by Wood Mackenzie, coal will continue to be the dominant fuel source in power generation, peaking at 2027 before slowing down and accounting for 36% of the region’s generation mix in 2040.
Since the turn of the decade, it’s been a frenetic period for M&A in the North Sea. Against a backdrop of oil price volatility and a dramatically changing corporate landscape, activity reached record levels. But have acquisitions created value so far? Wood Mackenzie recently analysed 55 of the largest North Sea deals announced between 2012 and 2018 from today’s vantage point to quantify underlying value creation.
Though set to become the world’s third largest gas producer by 2027, China’s imports will still grow in the long term. One key contributing factor is lower forecast in domestic gas production particularly in shale gas and coal bed methane (CBM), according to recent research by Wood Mackenzie.
As the tight oil sector continues to mature, producers are looking for ways to optimise their operations, improving efficiency of both production and costs. It's a battle to win back investor confidence. New research from Wood Mackenzie underscores the fact tight-oil operators are no longer chasing growth at all costs. Development strategies have firmly shifted to focus on scale: drilling sections instead of wells, with compressed paybacks, at the lowest possible cost. Many are favouring a “cube” development strategy, viewing it as the most efficient way to capitalise on cost savings.
Murphy Oil has reached a Final Investment Decision (FID) regarding the King's Quay facility, Khaleesi/Mormont and Samurai developments in deepwater Gulf of Mexico. Commenting, Mfon Usoro, Wood Mackenzie analyst said: “Murphy’s sanction of the trio of projects including the King’s Quay facility, K...
Wood Mackenzie believes that discovering new value requires going beyond isolated datasets. The solution lies in data consortiums – cooperative platforms where companies can safely share quality data.
Brazil’s natural gas market reforms have taken a major step forward, with plans in place which are set to open up opportunities across the gas value chain, and boost investment in the country’s pre-salt.
Rapidly rising production in the Permian basin has led to soaring levels of associated gas, outpacing pipeline infrastructure and placing increasing slowdown pressure on other production streams like crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs), Dr Eugene Kim, Research Director, Americas Gas, told delegates at the Unconventional Resources Technology Conference (URTeC) in Denver.
Rising produced water volumes and expanding costs pose a significant risk to production growth in the Permian basin, Ryan Duman, Senior Analyst, Lower 48, told delegates at the Unconventional Resources Technology Conference (URTeC) in Denver.
According to a new report by Wood Mackenzie, Japan could lose its pole position as the world’s top LNG importer to China as early as 2022.
Accelerating tight oil decline rates top a growing list of concerns for Permian basin operators, with unexpected production shortfalls prompting producers to consider stepping up drilling investment and M&A activity, Robert Clarke, Research Director, Lower 48 Upstream, told delegates at the Unconventional Resources Technology Conference (URTeC) in Denver.
Wood Mackenzie, the global natural resources research consultancy, announces today its partnership with P2 Energy Solutions to better analyse current and future well spacing.
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