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A five-year delay to the energy transition could see the global average temperature rise to 3°C above pre-industrial levels.
If high interest rates persist, transitioning to a net zero global economy will be even harder and more costly. The higher cost of borrowing negatively affects renewables and nascent technologies, compared to more established oil and gas, and metals and mining sectors, which remain somewhat insulated.
Home to half of the world’s population and contributing a third to the global GDP, the Asia Pacific region is expected to maintain a 50% share of global primary energy demand and a 60% share of global carbon emissions until 2050. This trend is unlikely to change without strong policy action and investment. However, the region still has the potential to turn these challenges into opportunities and become a global leader in the energy transition.
Chinese companies have made significant strides in the Belt & Road initiative's overseas power projects over the past decade. With an estimated investment value of around US$200 billion, over 300 projects have installed 128 GW of power, equivalent to 1.3 times Australia's installed capacity in 2022. However, challenges have emerged, leading to the cancellation or shelving of over 20% of projects to date.
The Asia Pacific region is forecast to invest US$3.3 trillion in power generation over the next 10 years, with 49% earmarked for wind and solar, and 12% for energy storage, according to latest Wood Mackenzie analysis.
China’s renewables manufacturing has emerged from 2021 bigger and more competitive than ever before. Western markets are benefitting from trading with the IKEA of the energy transition, but balancing reliance on China’s technology providers with local interests is now a key political as well as environmental challenge, says Wood Mackenzie.
Economic growth, stability in energy prices, energy transition, dual-control targets and relations with the US, are the top five themes to watch out for in China’s energy outlook this year, says Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie believes that Chinese authorities could allow customs clearance of stranded Australian thermal coal. In addition, the local governments in Yulin region of Shaanxi province and Inner Mongolia have announced yesterday that they will be increasing coal supply to meet demand.
Last week, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) released a draft of its upcoming 6th Strategic Energy Plan which included major changes to the FY2030 power generation mix targets.
Asia Pacific renewables (wind and solar) generation investments could double to US$1.3 trillion over the current decade to 2030 compared to the previous decade (2011 – 2020), says Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk business (Nasdaq:VRSK).
China’s march towards carbon neutrality is forcing its aluminium smelters away from using captive coal-fired power, says Wood Mackenzie.
The topic of environmental protection continues to feature heavily in the Two Sessions today. Wood Mackenzie experts share some initial thoughts.
Bangladesh is expected to double its fossil fuel imports to 32 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) between 2020 and 2030, says Wood Mackenzie.
India's 2020 energy outlook
The EIB's new financing criteria will make lending to gas projects very difficult. It highlights that gas is also increasingly in the spotlight of the climate debate.
According to a new report by Wood Mackenzie, coal will continue to be the dominant fuel source in power generation, peaking at 2027 before slowing down and accounting for 36% of the region’s generation mix in 2040.
According to a new report by Wood Mackenzie, Japan could lose its pole position as the world’s top LNG importer to China as early as 2022.
Following PM Scott Morrison's win in the recent 2019 Australia election, Wood Mackenzie and Verisk Maplecroft analysts share their thoughts.
Australia's general election is around the corner and Labor looks set for victory. Labor has announced its commitment to reduce Australia’s carbon emissions by 45% between 2005 and 2030, and to reach net-zero pollution by 2050. It has also proposed changes to existing mechanisms to lower energy and gas prices.
India's first east coast regas project, Ennore LNG terminal, was commissioned yesterday by Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL). Wood Mackenzie's senior analyst Kaushik Chatterjee shares the significance of this project and how this marks the beginning of India doubling its regas capacity to 56.5 million metric tonnes per annum (mmtpa) by 2025.
New research from global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie indicates Asia-Pacific's offshore wind capacity will rise 20-fold to 43 GW in 2027.
After a decade of stellar growth, Wood Mackenzie forecasts that solar demand in the Asia-Pacific will decline for the first time this year. Compared to 2017, the region's solar demand will dip 18% to 59 GW in 2018 due to declining installations in China, India and Japan.
India’s renewables target of 175 GW capacity (100 GW of solar and 75 GW of wind) by 2022 is an ambitious endeavour. Even with significant cost declines, Wood Mackenzie expects about 76% of the target to be met by 2022 and this would still be a noteworthy achievement. Wood Mackenzie's solar analyst Rishab Shrestha explains why.
Looking at behind-the-meter, Australia was the biggest residential storage market in the world in 2017, with a tripling of residential storage deployments over the previous year. High retail electricity rates and diminishing or expiring feed-in tariffs have encouraged residential solar customers to choose storage for self-consumption benefits. As a result, over the past few years, Australia has been the preferred testbed for new residential energy storage products, as several technology vendors have first introduced their residential product portfolios in the country.
Historically, coal has played a key role in meeting Asia's growing power demand. However environmental concerns has led to more stringent regulations and commitments towards tighter emission controls globally. Increasingly over the last year, financing institutions (mostly export credit agencies (ECAs) in OECD countries and European banks) have announced plans to stop investing in coal power projects. This could impact Asia since we expect growth in power demand through to 2035, and this calls for new power capacity, including coal-fired ones.
In celebration of ASEAN's 50th anniversary, our APAC gas and power senior analyst, Edi Saputra, reflects on ASEAN's energy developments and what to look out for in the coming years
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